Note that this is heavily contested. A lot of the observed phenomenon in the studies (qualitatively: incompetent people thinking they’re average, great people thinking they’re only good) can be explained by “better than average” effect + metrics not being perfect + natural mean regression.
And of course pop science accounts of Dunning-Kruger is even more unhinged than what D-K claimed.
My own best guess is that the claimed effect is real but small.
Note that this is heavily contested. A lot of the observed phenomenon in the studies (qualitatively: incompetent people thinking they’re average, great people thinking they’re only good) can be explained by “better than average” effect + metrics not being perfect + natural mean regression.
And of course pop science accounts of Dunning-Kruger is even more unhinged than what D-K claimed.
My own best guess is that the claimed effect is real but small.
Me: “The Dunning-Kruger effect is real.”
Linch: “…the claimed effect is real…”
Great to know that we are in agreement, Linch! The logical follow-up question is what other factor(s) has (have) a higher impact on the effect?
Interesting. Of course my point is independent of the D-K effect, although that would enhance it.
I’m not saying worse ppl are more. overconfident. I’m just saying ‘some ppl are overconfident or overstating’
I’m also suggesting to there may be a secular overstatement of abilities and accomplishments in some fields. Less so among EAs I suspect.