I remember Toby Ord gave a talk at GPI where he pointed out the following:
Let L be long-term value per unit of resources and N be near-term value per unit of resources. Then spending 50% of resources on the best long-term intervention and 50% of resources on the best near-term intervention will lead you to split resources equally between A and C. But the best thing to do on a 0.5*(near-term value)+0.5*(long-term value) value function is to devote 100% of resources to B.
That’s exactly why it’s important to clarify this. The position is that the entire value of the future has no more than a 50% weight in your utility function, not that each unit of future value is worth 50% as much.
I remember Toby Ord gave a talk at GPI where he pointed out the following:
Let L be long-term value per unit of resources and N be near-term value per unit of resources. Then spending 50% of resources on the best long-term intervention and 50% of resources on the best near-term intervention will lead you to split resources equally between A and C. But the best thing to do on a 0.5*(near-term value)+0.5*(long-term value) value function is to devote 100% of resources to B.
Diagram
That’s exactly why it’s important to clarify this. The position is that the entire value of the future has no more than a 50% weight in your utility function, not that each unit of future value is worth 50% as much.