Current death rates are likely to underestimate the total mortality rate, since the disease has likely not begun to affect most of the people who are infected.
I’ll add information about incubation period to the post.
By total mortality rate do you mean total number of people eventually or do you mean percentage?
If the former I agree.
If you mean the later… I see it as a toss up between the selection effect of the more severely affected being the ones we know have it (and so decreasing the true mortality rate relative to the published numbers) and time for the disease to fully progress (and so increasing the true mortality rate relative to the published numbers).
Current death rates are likely to underestimate the total mortality rate, since the disease has likely not begun to affect most of the people who are infected.
I’ll add information about incubation period to the post.
By total mortality rate do you mean total number of people eventually or do you mean percentage?
If the former I agree.
If you mean the later… I see it as a toss up between the selection effect of the more severely affected being the ones we know have it (and so decreasing the true mortality rate relative to the published numbers) and time for the disease to fully progress (and so increasing the true mortality rate relative to the published numbers).