Incubation period and Chinese government coverup efforts are relevant to this question, but roughly speaking if the actual number of infections is ~35x the reported number, and there’s no uptick in mysterious deaths in hospitals, then the actual mortality rate is ~1/35 the reported number, more in line with normal flu than 1918 Spanish flu.
Current death rates are likely to underestimate the total mortality rate, since the disease has likely not begun to affect most of the people who are infected.
I’ll add information about incubation period to the post.
By total mortality rate do you mean total number of people eventually or do you mean percentage?
If the former I agree.
If you mean the later… I see it as a toss up between the selection effect of the more severely affected being the ones we know have it (and so decreasing the true mortality rate relative to the published numbers) and time for the disease to fully progress (and so increasing the true mortality rate relative to the published numbers).
Incubation period and Chinese government coverup efforts are relevant to this question, but roughly speaking if the actual number of infections is ~35x the reported number, and there’s no uptick in mysterious deaths in hospitals, then the actual mortality rate is ~1/35 the reported number, more in line with normal flu than 1918 Spanish flu.
Current death rates are likely to underestimate the total mortality rate, since the disease has likely not begun to affect most of the people who are infected.
I’ll add information about incubation period to the post.
By total mortality rate do you mean total number of people eventually or do you mean percentage?
If the former I agree.
If you mean the later… I see it as a toss up between the selection effect of the more severely affected being the ones we know have it (and so decreasing the true mortality rate relative to the published numbers) and time for the disease to fully progress (and so increasing the true mortality rate relative to the published numbers).