Personally, I don’t see the bet itself as something that shouldn’t have happened. I acknowledge that others could have the perspective Chi had, and can see why they would. But didn’t feel that way myself, and I personally think that downside is outweighed by the upside of it being good for the community’s epistemics—and this is not just for Justin and Sean, but also for people reading the comments, so that they can come to more informed views based on the views the betters’ take and how strongly they hold them. (Therefore, there’s value in it being public, I think—I also therefore would personally suggest the comments shouldn’t be deleted, but it’s up to Sean.)
But I did feel really weird reading “Pleasure doing business Justin!”. I didn’t really feel uncomfortable with the rest of the upbeat tone Sean notes, but perhaps that should’ve been toned down too. That tone isn’t necessary for the benefits of the bet—it could be civil and polite but also neutral or sombre—and could create reputational issues for EA. (Plus it’s probably just good to have more respectful/taking-things-seriously norms in cases like these, without having to always calculate the consequences of such norms.)
Also, I feel uncomfortable with someone having downvoted Chi’s comment, given that it seemed to have a quite reasonable tone and to be sharing input/a suggestion/a recommendation. It wasn’t cutting or personal or damning. It seemed to me more like explaining Chi’s view than persuading, so I think we should be somewhat wary of downvoting such things, even when we disagree, so we don’t fall into something like groupthink. (I’ve strong upvoted for reasons of balance, even though I feel unsure about Chi’s actual recommendations.)
I agree that Chi’s comment is very reasonable (and upvoted for that reason).
Personally, I think editing for tone would be a reasonable compromise, but I am glad people are starting to think more about the EA Forum as a publicly searchable space.
Re: Michael & Khorton’s points, (1) Michael fully agreed, casual figure of speech that I’ve now deleted. I apologise. (2) I’ve done some further editing for tone but would be grateful if others had further suggestions.
I also agree re: Chi’s comment—I’ve already remarked that I think the point was valid, but I would add that I found it to be respectful and considerate in how it made its point (as one of the people it was directed towards).
It’s been useful for me to reflect on. I think a combination of two things for me: one is some inherent personal discomfort/concern about causing offence by effectively saying “I think you’re wrong and I’m willing to bet you’re wrong”, which I think I unintentionally counteracted with (possibly excessive) levity. The second is how quickly the disconnect can happen from (initial discussion of very serious topic) to (checking in on forum several days later to quickly respond to some math). Both are things I will be more careful about going forward. Lastly, I may have been spending too much time around risk folk, for whom certain discussions become so standard that one forgets how they can come across.
I guess there’s an interesting argument here for making casual gambling illegal—based on this thread, it seems like “Bets are serious & somber business, not for frivolous things like horse races” could be a really high value meme to spread.
Personally, I don’t see the bet itself as something that shouldn’t have happened. I acknowledge that others could have the perspective Chi had, and can see why they would. But didn’t feel that way myself, and I personally think that downside is outweighed by the upside of it being good for the community’s epistemics—and this is not just for Justin and Sean, but also for people reading the comments, so that they can come to more informed views based on the views the betters’ take and how strongly they hold them. (Therefore, there’s value in it being public, I think—I also therefore would personally suggest the comments shouldn’t be deleted, but it’s up to Sean.)
But I did feel really weird reading “Pleasure doing business Justin!”. I didn’t really feel uncomfortable with the rest of the upbeat tone Sean notes, but perhaps that should’ve been toned down too. That tone isn’t necessary for the benefits of the bet—it could be civil and polite but also neutral or sombre—and could create reputational issues for EA. (Plus it’s probably just good to have more respectful/taking-things-seriously norms in cases like these, without having to always calculate the consequences of such norms.)
Also, I feel uncomfortable with someone having downvoted Chi’s comment, given that it seemed to have a quite reasonable tone and to be sharing input/a suggestion/a recommendation. It wasn’t cutting or personal or damning. It seemed to me more like explaining Chi’s view than persuading, so I think we should be somewhat wary of downvoting such things, even when we disagree, so we don’t fall into something like groupthink. (I’ve strong upvoted for reasons of balance, even though I feel unsure about Chi’s actual recommendations.)
I agree that Chi’s comment is very reasonable (and upvoted for that reason). Personally, I think editing for tone would be a reasonable compromise, but I am glad people are starting to think more about the EA Forum as a publicly searchable space.
Re: Michael & Khorton’s points, (1) Michael fully agreed, casual figure of speech that I’ve now deleted. I apologise. (2) I’ve done some further editing for tone but would be grateful if others had further suggestions.
I also agree re: Chi’s comment—I’ve already remarked that I think the point was valid, but I would add that I found it to be respectful and considerate in how it made its point (as one of the people it was directed towards).
It’s been useful for me to reflect on. I think a combination of two things for me: one is some inherent personal discomfort/concern about causing offence by effectively saying “I think you’re wrong and I’m willing to bet you’re wrong”, which I think I unintentionally counteracted with (possibly excessive) levity. The second is how quickly the disconnect can happen from (initial discussion of very serious topic) to (checking in on forum several days later to quickly respond to some math). Both are things I will be more careful about going forward. Lastly, I may have been spending too much time around risk folk, for whom certain discussions become so standard that one forgets how they can come across.
Fwiw, the “pleasure doing business” line was the only part of your tone that struck me as off when I read the thread.
I guess there’s an interesting argument here for making casual gambling illegal—based on this thread, it seems like “Bets are serious & somber business, not for frivolous things like horse races” could be a really high value meme to spread.