I’m happy to remove my comments; I think Chi raises a valid point. The aim was basically calibration. I think this is quite common in EA and forecasting, but agree it could look morbid from the outside, and these are publicly searchable. (I’ve also been upbeat in my tone for friendliness/politeness towards people with different views, but this could be misread as a lack of respect for the gravity of the situation). Unless this post receives strong objections by this evening, I will delete my comments or ask moderators to delete.
I also strongly object. I think public betting is one of the most valuable aspects of our culture, and would be deeply saddened to see these comments disappear (and more broadly as an outside observer, seeing them disappear would make me deeply concerned about the epistemic health of our community, since that norm is one of the things that actually keeps members of our community accountable for their professed beliefs)
My take is that this at this stage has been resolved in favour of “editing for tone but keeping the bet posts”. I have done the editing for tone. I am happy with this outcome, I hope most others are too.
My own personal view is that I think public betting on beliefs is good—it’s why I did it (both this time and in the past) and my preference is to continue doing so. However, my take is that that the discussion highlighted that in certain circumstances around betting (such as predictions on events such as an ongoing mass fatality event) it is worth being particularly careful about tone.
I strongly object to saying we’re not allowed to bet on the most important questions—questions of life or death. That’s like deciding to take the best person off the team defending the president. Don’t handicap yourself when it matters most. This is the tool that stops us from just talking hot air and actually records which people are actually able to make correct predictions. These are some of the most important bets on the forum.
I think I strongly agree with you on the value of being open to using betting in cases like these (at least in private, probably in public). And if you mean something like “Just in case anyone were to interpret Chi a certain way, I’d like to say that I strongly object to...”, then I just fully agree with your comment.
But I think it’s worth pointing out that no one said “we’re not allowed to” do these bets—Chi’s comment was just their personal view and recommendation, and had various hedges. At most it was saying “we shouldn’t”, which feels quite different from “we’re not allowed to”.
(Compare thinking that what someone is saying is racist and they really shouldn’t have said it, vs actually taking away their platforms or preventing their speech—a much higher bar is needed for the latter.)
Personally, I don’t see the bet itself as something that shouldn’t have happened. I acknowledge that others could have the perspective Chi had, and can see why they would. But didn’t feel that way myself, and I personally think that downside is outweighed by the upside of it being good for the community’s epistemics—and this is not just for Justin and Sean, but also for people reading the comments, so that they can come to more informed views based on the views the betters’ take and how strongly they hold them. (Therefore, there’s value in it being public, I think—I also therefore would personally suggest the comments shouldn’t be deleted, but it’s up to Sean.)
But I did feel really weird reading “Pleasure doing business Justin!”. I didn’t really feel uncomfortable with the rest of the upbeat tone Sean notes, but perhaps that should’ve been toned down too. That tone isn’t necessary for the benefits of the bet—it could be civil and polite but also neutral or sombre—and could create reputational issues for EA. (Plus it’s probably just good to have more respectful/taking-things-seriously norms in cases like these, without having to always calculate the consequences of such norms.)
Also, I feel uncomfortable with someone having downvoted Chi’s comment, given that it seemed to have a quite reasonable tone and to be sharing input/a suggestion/a recommendation. It wasn’t cutting or personal or damning. It seemed to me more like explaining Chi’s view than persuading, so I think we should be somewhat wary of downvoting such things, even when we disagree, so we don’t fall into something like groupthink. (I’ve strong upvoted for reasons of balance, even though I feel unsure about Chi’s actual recommendations.)
I agree that Chi’s comment is very reasonable (and upvoted for that reason).
Personally, I think editing for tone would be a reasonable compromise, but I am glad people are starting to think more about the EA Forum as a publicly searchable space.
Re: Michael & Khorton’s points, (1) Michael fully agreed, casual figure of speech that I’ve now deleted. I apologise. (2) I’ve done some further editing for tone but would be grateful if others had further suggestions.
I also agree re: Chi’s comment—I’ve already remarked that I think the point was valid, but I would add that I found it to be respectful and considerate in how it made its point (as one of the people it was directed towards).
It’s been useful for me to reflect on. I think a combination of two things for me: one is some inherent personal discomfort/concern about causing offence by effectively saying “I think you’re wrong and I’m willing to bet you’re wrong”, which I think I unintentionally counteracted with (possibly excessive) levity. The second is how quickly the disconnect can happen from (initial discussion of very serious topic) to (checking in on forum several days later to quickly respond to some math). Both are things I will be more careful about going forward. Lastly, I may have been spending too much time around risk folk, for whom certain discussions become so standard that one forgets how they can come across.
I guess there’s an interesting argument here for making casual gambling illegal—based on this thread, it seems like “Bets are serious & somber business, not for frivolous things like horse races” could be a really high value meme to spread.
I’m happy to remove my comments; I think Chi raises a valid point. The aim was basically calibration. I think this is quite common in EA and forecasting, but agree it could look morbid from the outside, and these are publicly searchable. (I’ve also been upbeat in my tone for friendliness/politeness towards people with different views, but this could be misread as a lack of respect for the gravity of the situation). Unless this post receives strong objections by this evening, I will delete my comments or ask moderators to delete.
I also strongly object. I think public betting is one of the most valuable aspects of our culture, and would be deeply saddened to see these comments disappear (and more broadly as an outside observer, seeing them disappear would make me deeply concerned about the epistemic health of our community, since that norm is one of the things that actually keeps members of our community accountable for their professed beliefs)
My take is that this at this stage has been resolved in favour of “editing for tone but keeping the bet posts”. I have done the editing for tone. I am happy with this outcome, I hope most others are too.
My own personal view is that I think public betting on beliefs is good—it’s why I did it (both this time and in the past) and my preference is to continue doing so. However, my take is that that the discussion highlighted that in certain circumstances around betting (such as predictions on events such as an ongoing mass fatality event) it is worth being particularly careful about tone.
I strongly object to saying we’re not allowed to bet on the most important questions—questions of life or death. That’s like deciding to take the best person off the team defending the president. Don’t handicap yourself when it matters most. This is the tool that stops us from just talking hot air and actually records which people are actually able to make correct predictions. These are some of the most important bets on the forum.
(Kind of just a nitpick)
I think I strongly agree with you on the value of being open to using betting in cases like these (at least in private, probably in public). And if you mean something like “Just in case anyone were to interpret Chi a certain way, I’d like to say that I strongly object to...”, then I just fully agree with your comment.
But I think it’s worth pointing out that no one said “we’re not allowed to” do these bets—Chi’s comment was just their personal view and recommendation, and had various hedges. At most it was saying “we shouldn’t”, which feels quite different from “we’re not allowed to”.
(Compare thinking that what someone is saying is racist and they really shouldn’t have said it, vs actually taking away their platforms or preventing their speech—a much higher bar is needed for the latter.)
Personally, I don’t see the bet itself as something that shouldn’t have happened. I acknowledge that others could have the perspective Chi had, and can see why they would. But didn’t feel that way myself, and I personally think that downside is outweighed by the upside of it being good for the community’s epistemics—and this is not just for Justin and Sean, but also for people reading the comments, so that they can come to more informed views based on the views the betters’ take and how strongly they hold them. (Therefore, there’s value in it being public, I think—I also therefore would personally suggest the comments shouldn’t be deleted, but it’s up to Sean.)
But I did feel really weird reading “Pleasure doing business Justin!”. I didn’t really feel uncomfortable with the rest of the upbeat tone Sean notes, but perhaps that should’ve been toned down too. That tone isn’t necessary for the benefits of the bet—it could be civil and polite but also neutral or sombre—and could create reputational issues for EA. (Plus it’s probably just good to have more respectful/taking-things-seriously norms in cases like these, without having to always calculate the consequences of such norms.)
Also, I feel uncomfortable with someone having downvoted Chi’s comment, given that it seemed to have a quite reasonable tone and to be sharing input/a suggestion/a recommendation. It wasn’t cutting or personal or damning. It seemed to me more like explaining Chi’s view than persuading, so I think we should be somewhat wary of downvoting such things, even when we disagree, so we don’t fall into something like groupthink. (I’ve strong upvoted for reasons of balance, even though I feel unsure about Chi’s actual recommendations.)
I agree that Chi’s comment is very reasonable (and upvoted for that reason). Personally, I think editing for tone would be a reasonable compromise, but I am glad people are starting to think more about the EA Forum as a publicly searchable space.
Re: Michael & Khorton’s points, (1) Michael fully agreed, casual figure of speech that I’ve now deleted. I apologise. (2) I’ve done some further editing for tone but would be grateful if others had further suggestions.
I also agree re: Chi’s comment—I’ve already remarked that I think the point was valid, but I would add that I found it to be respectful and considerate in how it made its point (as one of the people it was directed towards).
It’s been useful for me to reflect on. I think a combination of two things for me: one is some inherent personal discomfort/concern about causing offence by effectively saying “I think you’re wrong and I’m willing to bet you’re wrong”, which I think I unintentionally counteracted with (possibly excessive) levity. The second is how quickly the disconnect can happen from (initial discussion of very serious topic) to (checking in on forum several days later to quickly respond to some math). Both are things I will be more careful about going forward. Lastly, I may have been spending too much time around risk folk, for whom certain discussions become so standard that one forgets how they can come across.
Fwiw, the “pleasure doing business” line was the only part of your tone that struck me as off when I read the thread.
I guess there’s an interesting argument here for making casual gambling illegal—based on this thread, it seems like “Bets are serious & somber business, not for frivolous things like horse races” could be a really high value meme to spread.