See also Gordon Irlam’s Back of the Envelope Guide to Philanthropy. Maybe not exactly what you are asking, though it’s in the vicinity.
Thanks for the feedback! I am aware of that guide, but it seems to lack the incorporation of bayesian reasoning (it is highlighted here as an example of an explicit expect value approach).
See also Gordon Irlam’s Back of the Envelope Guide to Philanthropy. Maybe not exactly what you are asking, though it’s in the vicinity.
Thanks for the feedback! I am aware of that guide, but it seems to lack the incorporation of bayesian reasoning (it is highlighted here as an example of an explicit expect value approach).