Why can’t non-research staff have an opinion about timelines? And why can’t staff tweet their timelines? Seems an overwhelmingly common EA thing to do.
I don’t think the issue is that they have an opinion, rather that they have the same opinion—like, ‘all the researchers have the same p(doom), even the non-researchers too’ is exactly the sort of thing I’d imagine hearing about a cultish org
I feel like you’re putting words put into my mouth a little bit, there. I didn’t say that their beliefs/behaviour were dispositively wrong, but that IF you have longer timelines, then you might start to wonder about groupthink.
That’s because in surveys and discussions of these issues even at MIRI, FHI, etc there have always been some researchers who have taken more mainstream views—and non-research staff usually have more mainstream views than researchers (which is not unreasonable if they’ve thought less about the issue).
Why can’t non-research staff have an opinion about timelines? And why can’t staff tweet their timelines? Seems an overwhelmingly common EA thing to do.
I don’t think the issue is that they have an opinion, rather that they have the same opinion—like, ‘all the researchers have the same p(doom), even the non-researchers too’ is exactly the sort of thing I’d imagine hearing about a cultish org
I feel like you’re putting words put into my mouth a little bit, there. I didn’t say that their beliefs/behaviour were dispositively wrong, but that IF you have longer timelines, then you might start to wonder about groupthink.
That’s because in surveys and discussions of these issues even at MIRI, FHI, etc there have always been some researchers who have taken more mainstream views—and non-research staff usually have more mainstream views than researchers (which is not unreasonable if they’ve thought less about the issue).