Possibly overly meta, but my pet theory here is that Conjecture, or at least the culture as presented by Conjecture’s public writings, is more culturally rationalist than approximately every other AI Safety org, so perhaps there’s some degree of culture clash or mood affiliation going on here.
I think it’s also that Conjecture is explicitly short timelines and high p(doom) which means a lot of the criticisms feel like criticisms of rationalists implicitly.
Interesting theory. Though I’m a little surprised by it, given that Conjecture is based in London (i.e., not SF/Berkeley), and given that Connor has talked about not vibing with Rationalist culture (1:07:37–01:14:15 of this podcast episode).
Additionally, it’s not clear that the EAF vs LW karma differential for this Conjecture piece will turn out to be an outlier within this critique series. Omega’s Redwood critique currently stands at 338 EAF karma, but just 1 LW karma (though, oddly, there were only 12 votes over at LW, which weakens the comparison). But perhaps this actually makes the meta analysis more interesting? Consistently large karma differentials in this series might point to a more general cultural divide—for example, in how criticism is viewed—between EAs and Rationalists. (And a better understanding of these communities’ cultures might help inform culture-shaping interventions.)
Possibly overly meta, but my pet theory here is that Conjecture, or at least the culture as presented by Conjecture’s public writings, is more culturally rationalist than approximately every other AI Safety org, so perhaps there’s some degree of culture clash or mood affiliation going on here.
I think it’s also that Conjecture is explicitly short timelines and high p(doom) which means a lot of the criticisms feel like criticisms of rationalists implicitly.
Interesting theory. Though I’m a little surprised by it, given that Conjecture is based in London (i.e., not SF/Berkeley), and given that Connor has talked about not vibing with Rationalist culture (1:07:37–01:14:15 of this podcast episode).
Additionally, it’s not clear that the EAF vs LW karma differential for this Conjecture piece will turn out to be an outlier within this critique series. Omega’s Redwood critique currently stands at 338 EAF karma, but just 1 LW karma (though, oddly, there were only 12 votes over at LW, which weakens the comparison). But perhaps this actually makes the meta analysis more interesting? Consistently large karma differentials in this series might point to a more general cultural divide—for example, in how criticism is viewed—between EAs and Rationalists. (And a better understanding of these communities’ cultures might help inform culture-shaping interventions.)
We posted the Redwood post several weeks late on LW, which might explain the low karma on LW.