Quick point that I’m fairly suspicious of uniform distributions for such uncertainties.
I’d agree that our format of a 90% CI can be deceptive, especially when people aren’t used to it. I imagine it would eventually be really neat to have probability distribution support right in the EA Forum. Until then, I’m curious if there are better ways to write the statistical summaries of many variables.
To me, “0.01 to 0.1” doesn’t suggest that 5.5% is the “mean”, but I could definitely appreciate that others would think that.
Quick point that I’m fairly suspicious of uniform distributions for such uncertainties.
I’d agree that our format of a 90% CI can be deceptive, especially when people aren’t used to it. I imagine it would eventually be really neat to have probability distribution support right in the EA Forum. Until then, I’m curious if there are better ways to write the statistical summaries of many variables.
To me, “0.01 to 0.1” doesn’t suggest that 5.5% is the “mean”, but I could definitely appreciate that others would think that.