Another modeling issue is that each individual variable is log-normal rather than normal/uniform. This means that while probability of success is “0.01 to 0.1”, suggesting 5.5% as the “average”, the actual computed average is 4%. This doesn’t make a big difference on its own but it’s important when multiplying together lots of numbers. I’m not sure that converting log-normal to uniform would in general lead to better estimates but it’s important to flag.
Quick point that I’m fairly suspicious of uniform distributions for such uncertainties.
I’d agree that our format of a 90% CI can be deceptive, especially when people aren’t used to it. I imagine it would eventually be really neat to have probability distribution support right in the EA Forum. Until then, I’m curious if there are better ways to write the statistical summaries of many variables.
To me, “0.01 to 0.1” doesn’t suggest that 5.5% is the “mean”, but I could definitely appreciate that others would think that.
Another modeling issue is that each individual variable is log-normal rather than normal/uniform. This means that while probability of success is “0.01 to 0.1”, suggesting 5.5% as the “average”, the actual computed average is 4%. This doesn’t make a big difference on its own but it’s important when multiplying together lots of numbers. I’m not sure that converting log-normal to uniform would in general lead to better estimates but it’s important to flag.
Quick point that I’m fairly suspicious of uniform distributions for such uncertainties.
I’d agree that our format of a 90% CI can be deceptive, especially when people aren’t used to it. I imagine it would eventually be really neat to have probability distribution support right in the EA Forum. Until then, I’m curious if there are better ways to write the statistical summaries of many variables.
To me, “0.01 to 0.1” doesn’t suggest that 5.5% is the “mean”, but I could definitely appreciate that others would think that.