I was intrigued by this when you told me about it at EAG Nick, so it’s great to see you’ve written it in a post here as it absolutely merits further investigation.
As you say, finding out why this (may) be true is highly important. Given the potential scale of impact here and the complexity of interactions which may be creating that effect, this feels a great candidate for some sort of causal/Bayesian model to be created as part of a research project. If done correctly this then could be used to inform several RCTs that can try and find the true effect of potential predictors (of which we seem to only have very data poor priors for currently).
Thanks James. Yeah its a really good point how poor our priors are here. They are almost straight theory with little empirical evidence to back them up.
I was intrigued by this when you told me about it at EAG Nick, so it’s great to see you’ve written it in a post here as it absolutely merits further investigation.
As you say, finding out why this (may) be true is highly important. Given the potential scale of impact here and the complexity of interactions which may be creating that effect, this feels a great candidate for some sort of causal/Bayesian model to be created as part of a research project. If done correctly this then could be used to inform several RCTs that can try and find the true effect of potential predictors (of which we seem to only have very data poor priors for currently).
Thanks James. Yeah its a really good point how poor our priors are here. They are almost straight theory with little empirical evidence to back them up.