2. I’m not sure what kind of references you are supposed to add here. Should they be accessible to everyone or can books, etc. be included as well? If the latter, then I’d add Daniel Kahneman’s book Thinking Fast and Slow to the list. There are good parts about these concepts in the book. (e.g. Kindle version location 4220)
3. To me, it seems that the definitions of “inside view” and “outside view” are not clear enough, whereas the examples are very good. https://www.hybridforecasting.com/ had nice slides about this, however, I’m not able to find their material to share here. Anyway, their definitions and explanations are the following:
Inside view: focus on the unique qualities of the case at hand.
Outside view: connect the case at hand to a reference class and rely on base rate information.
Reference classes refer to similar events from the past.
Base rates are relative frequencies of an outcome given a defined set. For example, the chance of selecting a red card from a deck of cards if 50%.
Thanks for this feedback, especially the suggested definitions. Your thoughts will definitely be incorporated into the final version. (Also, we should probably be linking to Thinking Fast and Slow all over the Concepts site—that was a useful reminder!)
1. I prefer “we”.
2. I’m not sure what kind of references you are supposed to add here. Should they be accessible to everyone or can books, etc. be included as well? If the latter, then I’d add Daniel Kahneman’s book Thinking Fast and Slow to the list. There are good parts about these concepts in the book. (e.g. Kindle version location 4220)
3. To me, it seems that the definitions of “inside view” and “outside view” are not clear enough, whereas the examples are very good. https://www.hybridforecasting.com/ had nice slides about this, however, I’m not able to find their material to share here. Anyway, their definitions and explanations are the following:
Inside view: focus on the unique qualities of the case at hand.
Outside view: connect the case at hand to a reference class and rely on base rate information.
Reference classes refer to similar events from the past.
Base rates are relative frequencies of an outcome given a defined set. For example, the chance of selecting a red card from a deck of cards if 50%.
Thanks for this feedback, especially the suggested definitions. Your thoughts will definitely be incorporated into the final version. (Also, we should probably be linking to Thinking Fast and Slow all over the Concepts site—that was a useful reminder!)