On the one hand, in order for MAD to work, decision-makers on both sides must be able to give credible threats for a retaliatory strike scenario. This is also true in this experiment’s case: if we assume that this will be iterated on future Petrov Days, then we must show that any tit-for-tat precommitments made are followed through.
But at the same time, if LessWrong takes down the EA Forum, it just seems like wanton destruction to similarly take it down, too. I know that, as a holder of the codes, I should ensure that I’m making a fully credible threat by precommitting to a retaliatory strike, but I want to take precommitments seriously and I don’t feel confident enough to precommit to such an action.
After giving this much thought, I decided to present the perhaps-too-weak claim that if the EA Forum goes down due to a LessWrong user pressing the button, I may press in retaliation. While this is not an idle threat, and I am serious about potentially performing a retaliatory strike, I am falling short of committing myself to that action in advance. I give more of my reasoning in my blog post on this.
(Ultimately, this is moot, since others are already willing to make such a precommitment so I don’t have to.)
On the one hand, in order for MAD to work, decision-makers on both sides must be able to give credible threats for a retaliatory strike scenario. This is also true in this experiment’s case: if we assume that this will be iterated on future Petrov Days, then we must show that any tit-for-tat precommitments made are followed through.
But at the same time, if LessWrong takes down the EA Forum, it just seems like wanton destruction to similarly take it down, too. I know that, as a holder of the codes, I should ensure that I’m making a fully credible threat by precommitting to a retaliatory strike, but I want to take precommitments seriously and I don’t feel confident enough to precommit to such an action.
After giving this much thought, I decided to present the perhaps-too-weak claim that if the EA Forum goes down due to a LessWrong user pressing the button, I may press in retaliation. While this is not an idle threat, and I am serious about potentially performing a retaliatory strike, I am falling short of committing myself to that action in advance. I give more of my reasoning in my blog post on this.
(Ultimately, this is moot, since others are already willing to make such a precommitment so I don’t have to.)
I’ve made a much stronger precommitment