[Updated 26 June: Part 2]
We ended up talking for 8 hours, so I’m splitting this episode into 2 parts.
This part is about Carl’s model of an intelligence explosion, which integrates everything from:
* how fast algorithmic progress & hardware improvements in AI are happening,
* what primate evolution suggests about the scaling hypothesis,
* how soon before AIs could do large parts of AI research themselves, and whether there would be faster and faster doublings of AI researchers,
* how quickly robots produced from existing factories could take over the economy.
We also discuss the odds of a takeover based on whether the AI is aligned before the intelligence explosion happens, and Carl explains why he’s more optimistic than Eliezer.
The next part, which I’ll release next week, is about all the specific mechanisms of an AI takeover, plus a whole bunch of other galaxy brain stuff.
Ideally this link post would point to the episode page on Dwarkesh’s website, which includes a transcript.
The transcript can be found on this link as well.
Part 2: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1673355293890347010
Thanks for sharing! There is a video too.
For more on Carl’s thinking, people can check Reflective Disequilibrium.
8 hours! Bringing me back to being in high school and in an arms race with my cinephile friends to be maximally pretentious by watching the longest most obscure movies.