Thanks for the input—you are certainly in a great position to judge this and I love this framework. I also agree shutting down earlier can be far easier, because if you are 3 years in with increasing funding, while realizing you aren’t up to much it could be difficult socially and status wise to pull out at that point.
A slight caveat I would have is that it might depend on where follow-on funding was coming from. In a closed system with limited EA resources, then yes the only important Factor might be how good a marginal bet the org is.
If an organisation with a lower marginal chance of of success managed to get decent funding from NON- EA sources then it might be worth continuing with a worse bet. For example if maternal health initiative got a big foundation grant or if the recently closed policy org for funded through a thinktank or government grant. One issue here is that often orgs need 3-4 years of operation before people will grant them much money (outside of EA ecosystem)
But I would imagine getting big outside funding isn’t super common for marginal bet CE orgs, if it has happened at all. I’m also not sure to what extent the source of funding should change our bet (this has been discussed on the forum but would love to see some math done—mine isn’t good enough)
Another even less important caveat might be if talented people were so passionate about what they their initial org did, that they might not be able to easily maximize on their talent in another role.
I would be interested to get a vague idea of what CE founders usually end up doing after closing their orgs. Have many joined other higher performing CE orgs? This might be sensitive info though.
From the little I know of CE peeps I would imagine they are mostly doing pretty great stuff.
Joining another CE charity is pretty common, as is working at EA meta-orgs (AIM, GiveWell, etc.). I would guess that around 75% do something most people would regard as very high impact.
Agree regarding external marginal funding, but I would say, at least in AIM’s case, this correlates with early-stage success.
Thanks for the input—you are certainly in a great position to judge this and I love this framework. I also agree shutting down earlier can be far easier, because if you are 3 years in with increasing funding, while realizing you aren’t up to much it could be difficult socially and status wise to pull out at that point.
A slight caveat I would have is that it might depend on where follow-on funding was coming from. In a closed system with limited EA resources, then yes the only important Factor might be how good a marginal bet the org is.
If an organisation with a lower marginal chance of of success managed to get decent funding from NON- EA sources then it might be worth continuing with a worse bet. For example if maternal health initiative got a big foundation grant or if the recently closed policy org for funded through a thinktank or government grant. One issue here is that often orgs need 3-4 years of operation before people will grant them much money (outside of EA ecosystem)
But I would imagine getting big outside funding isn’t super common for marginal bet CE orgs, if it has happened at all. I’m also not sure to what extent the source of funding should change our bet (this has been discussed on the forum but would love to see some math done—mine isn’t good enough)
Another even less important caveat might be if talented people were so passionate about what they their initial org did, that they might not be able to easily maximize on their talent in another role.
I would be interested to get a vague idea of what CE founders usually end up doing after closing their orgs. Have many joined other higher performing CE orgs? This might be sensitive info though.
From the little I know of CE peeps I would imagine they are mostly doing pretty great stuff.
Joining another CE charity is pretty common, as is working at EA meta-orgs (AIM, GiveWell, etc.). I would guess that around 75% do something most people would regard as very high impact.
Agree regarding external marginal funding, but I would say, at least in AIM’s case, this correlates with early-stage success.