“Interventions that delay the eruption have the risk of making the future eruption more intense”
I think this is right, and until we can competently model how a magma will respond to any interventions that we might do, it’s perhaps too risky to do at the moment. Nevertheless volcanologists have gone the other way and completely dismissed this whole concept of intervention. Personally, I think it be very worthwhile to investigate this concept in the lab and with numerical models, as after all, humans have drilled directly into magma reservoirs by mistake (while looking for geothermal energy) (~4 times in fact!) with limited negative consequences. So the knowledge we can find out by drilling magmas (one of the links I shared in the conclusions) would be highly informative for the coming decades of volcano science.
At the moment, there are far less risky options that could do to mitigate the risk in the short term, for instance we haven’t even identified all the volcanoes capable of climate-altering eruptions, and how we can best to monitor them (many of these will not even be monitored, especially in resource-poor, volcano-rich countries like Indonesia and the Philippines).
One of the authors here—yes there is risk trying to prevent an eruption. Lower risk and providing protection against many other catastrophes than volcanic is preparing to scale up resilient foods quickly. It is also more cost effective.
Hi David, yes totally agree and meant to add this to my answer above. In fact, I think our post only strengthens the case for looking into resilient foods.
I am concerned about the volcanos that are not being monitored in developing countries. I actually live in a vulcano that is very likely to not be properly monitored (Mt. Cameroun) and that has had activity in recent decades.
Is there anything that small NGOs, local Universities, local governments, and civil society can do to help monitor vulcano activity? what risk mitigation measures can be realistically planned and promoted in low income countries?
Sorry if I am out of topic. I thought of writing privately but someone else might find the answer useful.
Unfortunately, the lack of monitoring isn’t limited to low-income countries, and even countries like the US struggle to maintain monitoring networks due to financial constraits (and changes in office). On increasing our monitoring capacity, the use of satellite technology is greatly enhancing our capabilities but we still have a long way to go for this to be a robust method. Often we must request satellites be flown over volcanoes, rather than it being routinely conducted and imagery can also be expensive. It should also be noted that volcanoes don’t necessarily show signs of imminent activity. Some eruptions occur with minimal to no precursory activity (tremors, ground deformation etc.) so monitoring and prediction cannot always be a definite science.
One way that to be able to build our capacity for volcano monitoring would be through community empowerment, essentially building awareness within communities about how to identify signs of change at volcanoes and being able to report their concerns. Many citizen science projects are aiming to explore just this.
For now, I believe education and outreach with at-risk communities is essential to ensure preparedness of those most exposed. Certainly, my experience with the recent La Soufriere eruption in St Vincent was able to demonstrate the efficacy of long-term education programmes, resulting in no direct loss of life. Of course, dealing with disasters is multi-faceted and preparedness should also be directed at local authorities and stakeholders to ensure their preparedness to respond to a crisis. Again though, there is a severe funding source lack for these programmes and governments often do not prioritise this.
Thanks!
As the authors put it in that paper:
I think this is right, and until we can competently model how a magma will respond to any interventions that we might do, it’s perhaps too risky to do at the moment. Nevertheless volcanologists have gone the other way and completely dismissed this whole concept of intervention. Personally, I think it be very worthwhile to investigate this concept in the lab and with numerical models, as after all, humans have drilled directly into magma reservoirs by mistake (while looking for geothermal energy) (~4 times in fact!) with limited negative consequences. So the knowledge we can find out by drilling magmas (one of the links I shared in the conclusions) would be highly informative for the coming decades of volcano science.
At the moment, there are far less risky options that could do to mitigate the risk in the short term, for instance we haven’t even identified all the volcanoes capable of climate-altering eruptions, and how we can best to monitor them (many of these will not even be monitored, especially in resource-poor, volcano-rich countries like Indonesia and the Philippines).
One of the authors here—yes there is risk trying to prevent an eruption. Lower risk and providing protection against many other catastrophes than volcanic is preparing to scale up resilient foods quickly. It is also more cost effective.
Hi David, yes totally agree and meant to add this to my answer above. In fact, I think our post only strengthens the case for looking into resilient foods.
Great post and answers I really enjoyed it.
I am concerned about the volcanos that are not being monitored in developing countries. I actually live in a vulcano that is very likely to not be properly monitored (Mt. Cameroun) and that has had activity in recent decades.
Is there anything that small NGOs, local Universities, local governments, and civil society can do to help monitor vulcano activity? what risk mitigation measures can be realistically planned and promoted in low income countries?
Sorry if I am out of topic. I thought of writing privately but someone else might find the answer useful.
Thanks for this question MarcSerna.
Unfortunately, the lack of monitoring isn’t limited to low-income countries, and even countries like the US struggle to maintain monitoring networks due to financial constraits (and changes in office). On increasing our monitoring capacity, the use of satellite technology is greatly enhancing our capabilities but we still have a long way to go for this to be a robust method. Often we must request satellites be flown over volcanoes, rather than it being routinely conducted and imagery can also be expensive. It should also be noted that volcanoes don’t necessarily show signs of imminent activity. Some eruptions occur with minimal to no precursory activity (tremors, ground deformation etc.) so monitoring and prediction cannot always be a definite science.
One way that to be able to build our capacity for volcano monitoring would be through community empowerment, essentially building awareness within communities about how to identify signs of change at volcanoes and being able to report their concerns. Many citizen science projects are aiming to explore just this.
For now, I believe education and outreach with at-risk communities is essential to ensure preparedness of those most exposed. Certainly, my experience with the recent La Soufriere eruption in St Vincent was able to demonstrate the efficacy of long-term education programmes, resulting in no direct loss of life. Of course, dealing with disasters is multi-faceted and preparedness should also be directed at local authorities and stakeholders to ensure their preparedness to respond to a crisis. Again though, there is a severe funding source lack for these programmes and governments often do not prioritise this.
Thank you! Are there any public educative materials you recommend as a base?
Hi Marc,
Clive Oppenheimer’s, ‘Eruptions that shook the world’ is a great introduction to volcanoes and their role on society. Cheers!