I think the model setup or at least the clarifications around it needs tweaking. Namely you’re assuming that the main reason we may discontinue a researched-to-be-positive intervention is due to intrinsic time preference. But I think it’s much more likely that over enough time there will be distributional shift/generalizability issues with old studies.
For one example, if we’re all dead, a lot of studies are kind of useless. For another example, studies on the cost-effectiveness of (e.g.) malaria nets and deworming pills becomes increasingly out-of-distribution as (thankfully!) malarial and intestinal worm loads decrease worldwide, perhaps in the future approaching zero.
I think the model setup or at least the clarifications around it needs tweaking. Namely you’re assuming that the main reason we may discontinue a researched-to-be-positive intervention is due to intrinsic time preference. But I think it’s much more likely that over enough time there will be distributional shift/generalizability issues with old studies.
For one example, if we’re all dead, a lot of studies are kind of useless. For another example, studies on the cost-effectiveness of (e.g.) malaria nets and deworming pills becomes increasingly out-of-distribution as (thankfully!) malarial and intestinal worm loads decrease worldwide, perhaps in the future approaching zero.