but I just wanted to raise a couple of points where you think we disagree where we don’t.
I wrote my post knowing we’d be talking past each other some—I wanted to emphasize career capital and psychological fit even knowing that it they were being bracketed out by your carefully worded question. Sorry that makes things confusing!
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So I’m wondering what % you’d give in answer to the question we were asking, given clarifications 1 and 2?
It’s difficult to make even a rough guess about the “long term” future of EA (say >5 years) and I don’t think that such a rough guess is all that valuable when switching out of ETG to something more “direct” is usually pretty easy.
The % is also further complicated in the thought that other people raised that I did consider buy not sufficiently—careers that involve direct impact without requiring funding from EAs (e.g., academics).
On one hand, if more foundations like Good Ventures continue to enter at the current rate they have and our current ETG people don’t value drift and have incomes rise as they think they will, ETG will be getting less valuable. On the other hand, if funding opportunities continue to grow rapidly, especially from The Open Philanthropy Project, ETG will be getting more valuable. I’m not clear on which one of these trends will dominate. I don’t even know which trend is currently winning, though I suspect the first one (making ETG less valuable over time).
I wrote my post knowing we’d be talking past each other some—I wanted to emphasize career capital and psychological fit even knowing that it they were being bracketed out by your carefully worded question. Sorry that makes things confusing!
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It’s difficult to make even a rough guess about the “long term” future of EA (say >5 years) and I don’t think that such a rough guess is all that valuable when switching out of ETG to something more “direct” is usually pretty easy.
The % is also further complicated in the thought that other people raised that I did consider buy not sufficiently—careers that involve direct impact without requiring funding from EAs (e.g., academics).
On one hand, if more foundations like Good Ventures continue to enter at the current rate they have and our current ETG people don’t value drift and have incomes rise as they think they will, ETG will be getting less valuable. On the other hand, if funding opportunities continue to grow rapidly, especially from The Open Philanthropy Project, ETG will be getting more valuable. I’m not clear on which one of these trends will dominate. I don’t even know which trend is currently winning, though I suspect the first one (making ETG less valuable over time).
That’s why I wanted to focus more short-term.