Hey this is a great discussion to have so I’m really glad you posted it. You haven’t changed my views, and I don’t have time right now to go into details, and I haven’t read the comments yet, but I just wanted to raise a couple of points where you think we disagree where we don’t. Note the question we answered:
“At this point in time, and on the margin, what portion of altruistically motivated graduates from a good university, who are open to pursuing any career path, should aim to earn to give in the long term?”
“Long term” in that question is bracketing out the ‘career capital’ argument for EtG which you discuss above. I believe that a higher proportion of ppl should EtG short term than should EtG long term bc of the career capital benefits. (And I think say something similar in the OP).
“open to pursuing any career path” is bracketing out the following consideration: “psychologically, earning-to-give seems to me to be a better fit for the average EA than direct work”. If we were just asking “what % of the EA community should (in a sense of ‘should’ that takes into account people’s psychologies, etc) EtG?” and ran the survey among the 80k team again, I suspect the number would be higher than 15%. (And again, I thought in the OP I mentioned this as an argument for non-EtG; there are many people who are going to EtG whatever happens, so if you’re happy not-EtG that’s a reason in favour of not-EtG).
So I’m wondering what % you’d give in answer to the question we were asking, given clarifications 1 and 2? I’m worried there’s some miscommunication bc you seemed to be answering “What % of the EA community should EtG at any one time” and we were answering a narrower q? (I don’t think we’ll have the same view, but it might be closer)
On the subject of non-disagreements, can I make another ping about the probable large difference in definitions of Earning-to-Give? Peter did give a definition “According to the EA Survey (focused on 2013 data), the mean donation in our sample from EAs who met the criteria for earning-to-give (>=$60K annual income and >=10% donations)...”. There isn’t one in the OP.
Or to put it more pointedly, would I be right in guessing that if we define everyone earning >$60k and donating >10% as Earning to Give, you think more than 15% of people open to any career path should be doing that long term?
Peter did give a definition “According to the EA Survey (focused on 2013 data), the mean donation in our sample from EAs who met the criteria for earning-to-give (>=$60K annual income and >=10% donations)...”
If I were defining it again, I’d further refine it to have the third criteria “and with the intent that the majority of one’s impact is coming from donations”. For example if one earns $60K at a company working on improving developing world infrastructure, it sounds like something different than what I’d consider making a big difference through donations.
but I just wanted to raise a couple of points where you think we disagree where we don’t.
I wrote my post knowing we’d be talking past each other some—I wanted to emphasize career capital and psychological fit even knowing that it they were being bracketed out by your carefully worded question. Sorry that makes things confusing!
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So I’m wondering what % you’d give in answer to the question we were asking, given clarifications 1 and 2?
It’s difficult to make even a rough guess about the “long term” future of EA (say >5 years) and I don’t think that such a rough guess is all that valuable when switching out of ETG to something more “direct” is usually pretty easy.
The % is also further complicated in the thought that other people raised that I did consider buy not sufficiently—careers that involve direct impact without requiring funding from EAs (e.g., academics).
On one hand, if more foundations like Good Ventures continue to enter at the current rate they have and our current ETG people don’t value drift and have incomes rise as they think they will, ETG will be getting less valuable. On the other hand, if funding opportunities continue to grow rapidly, especially from The Open Philanthropy Project, ETG will be getting more valuable. I’m not clear on which one of these trends will dominate. I don’t even know which trend is currently winning, though I suspect the first one (making ETG less valuable over time).
In general, in “talent constraint vs funding constraint” discussions I find it super important to be clear on exactly what q is being asked as it’s easy to talk past one another.
Hey this is a great discussion to have so I’m really glad you posted it. You haven’t changed my views, and I don’t have time right now to go into details, and I haven’t read the comments yet, but I just wanted to raise a couple of points where you think we disagree where we don’t. Note the question we answered:
“At this point in time, and on the margin, what portion of altruistically motivated graduates from a good university, who are open to pursuing any career path, should aim to earn to give in the long term?”
“Long term” in that question is bracketing out the ‘career capital’ argument for EtG which you discuss above. I believe that a higher proportion of ppl should EtG short term than should EtG long term bc of the career capital benefits. (And I think say something similar in the OP).
“open to pursuing any career path” is bracketing out the following consideration: “psychologically, earning-to-give seems to me to be a better fit for the average EA than direct work”. If we were just asking “what % of the EA community should (in a sense of ‘should’ that takes into account people’s psychologies, etc) EtG?” and ran the survey among the 80k team again, I suspect the number would be higher than 15%. (And again, I thought in the OP I mentioned this as an argument for non-EtG; there are many people who are going to EtG whatever happens, so if you’re happy not-EtG that’s a reason in favour of not-EtG).
So I’m wondering what % you’d give in answer to the question we were asking, given clarifications 1 and 2? I’m worried there’s some miscommunication bc you seemed to be answering “What % of the EA community should EtG at any one time” and we were answering a narrower q? (I don’t think we’ll have the same view, but it might be closer)
On the subject of non-disagreements, can I make another ping about the probable large difference in definitions of Earning-to-Give? Peter did give a definition “According to the EA Survey (focused on 2013 data), the mean donation in our sample from EAs who met the criteria for earning-to-give (>=$60K annual income and >=10% donations)...”. There isn’t one in the OP.
Or to put it more pointedly, would I be right in guessing that if we define everyone earning >$60k and donating >10% as Earning to Give, you think more than 15% of people open to any career path should be doing that long term?
If I were defining it again, I’d further refine it to have the third criteria “and with the intent that the majority of one’s impact is coming from donations”. For example if one earns $60K at a company working on improving developing world infrastructure, it sounds like something different than what I’d consider making a big difference through donations.
I wrote my post knowing we’d be talking past each other some—I wanted to emphasize career capital and psychological fit even knowing that it they were being bracketed out by your carefully worded question. Sorry that makes things confusing!
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It’s difficult to make even a rough guess about the “long term” future of EA (say >5 years) and I don’t think that such a rough guess is all that valuable when switching out of ETG to something more “direct” is usually pretty easy.
The % is also further complicated in the thought that other people raised that I did consider buy not sufficiently—careers that involve direct impact without requiring funding from EAs (e.g., academics).
On one hand, if more foundations like Good Ventures continue to enter at the current rate they have and our current ETG people don’t value drift and have incomes rise as they think they will, ETG will be getting less valuable. On the other hand, if funding opportunities continue to grow rapidly, especially from The Open Philanthropy Project, ETG will be getting more valuable. I’m not clear on which one of these trends will dominate. I don’t even know which trend is currently winning, though I suspect the first one (making ETG less valuable over time).
That’s why I wanted to focus more short-term.
In general, in “talent constraint vs funding constraint” discussions I find it super important to be clear on exactly what q is being asked as it’s easy to talk past one another.