Agreed that it probably makes sense to be closer to 60 years, or maybe even a bit lower (though if there are major advances in life-extension over the coming decades, then it could be much higher for young children who will have the most chance to benefit).
I’d note that health-related quality of life is likely to be less than 1 per year, perhaps 0.7 or 0.8.
Regarding counterfactual mortality, wouldn’t this largely be taken into account of in the overall estimate of life expectancy? Though this overall estimate probably doesn’t include things like major catastrophes (devastating pandemics, x-risks)
I am not clear on if that number is meant to be interpreted in terms of years or just as a unitless “moral weight” for comparison purposes. I am hesitant to compare it with QALYs or other metrics without knowing the units.
Yes close enough—in reality it would be YLL + Other DALYs (suffering but not death caused by malaria) which would be equivalent to QALYs, but YLL would be close enough I think!
Agreed that it probably makes sense to be closer to 60 years, or maybe even a bit lower (though if there are major advances in life-extension over the coming decades, then it could be much higher for young children who will have the most chance to benefit).
I’d note that health-related quality of life is likely to be less than 1 per year, perhaps 0.7 or 0.8.
Regarding counterfactual mortality, wouldn’t this largely be taken into account of in the overall estimate of life expectancy? Though this overall estimate probably doesn’t include things like major catastrophes (devastating pandemics, x-risks)
GiveWell’s spreadsheet says that the conventional value would be 37 based on discounting and age-weighting
I am not clear on if that number is meant to be interpreted in terms of years or just as a unitless “moral weight” for comparison purposes. I am hesitant to compare it with QALYs or other metrics without knowing the units.
The spreadsheet in the second link says YLL (years of life lost) which I think can be considered equivalent to QALYs in this case.
It’s also consistent with the comment on the 0.40 on the conventional value of increasing income in the first spreadsheet
Yes close enough—in reality it would be YLL + Other DALYs (suffering but not death caused by malaria) which would be equivalent to QALYs, but YLL would be close enough I think!
Thanks for finding that!