How does the resolution and calibration of forecasts vary by the forecasts’ “range” (e.g., whether the forecast is for an event 6 months away vs 3 years away vs 20 years away)?
I have an (unfinished) essay on the topic using Metaculus and PredictionBook data. Relation between range and accuracy is negative within forecasts on one specific questions. Specifically, linear regression is 0.0019x+0.0105 for brier score over the range in days. Of course, I’ll look into better statistical analyses if I find time.
I have an (unfinished) essay on the topic using Metaculus and PredictionBook data. Relation between range and accuracy is negative within forecasts on one specific questions. Specifically, linear regression is
0.0019x+0.0105for brier score over the range in days. Of course, I’ll look into better statistical analyses if I find time.Thanks for sharing this, I’ll try look over it soon.
Just beware I got feedback by two different people that it’s difficult to understand.