This is enough to make me discount its value by perhaps one-to-two orders of magnitude.
So you’d put the probability of CEV working at between 90 and 99 percent? 90% seems plausible to me if a little high; 99% seems way too high.
But I have to give you a lot of credit for saying “the possibility of CEV discounts how valuable this is” instead of “this doesn’t matter because CEV will solve it”; many people say the latter, implicitly assuming that CEV has a near-100% probability of working.
So you’d put the probability of CEV working at between 90 and 99 percent?
No, rather lower than that (80%?). But I think that we’re more likely to attain only somewhat-flawed versions of the future without something CEV-ish. This reduces my estimate of the value of getting them kind of right, relative to getting good outcomes through worlds which do achieve something like CEV. I think that probably ex-post provides another very large discount factor, and the significant chance that it does provides another modest ex-ante discount factor (maybe another 80%; none of my numbers here are deeply considered).
So you’d put the probability of CEV working at between 90 and 99 percent? 90% seems plausible to me if a little high; 99% seems way too high.
But I have to give you a lot of credit for saying “the possibility of CEV discounts how valuable this is” instead of “this doesn’t matter because CEV will solve it”; many people say the latter, implicitly assuming that CEV has a near-100% probability of working.
No, rather lower than that (80%?). But I think that we’re more likely to attain only somewhat-flawed versions of the future without something CEV-ish. This reduces my estimate of the value of getting them kind of right, relative to getting good outcomes through worlds which do achieve something like CEV. I think that probably ex-post provides another very large discount factor, and the significant chance that it does provides another modest ex-ante discount factor (maybe another 80%; none of my numbers here are deeply considered).