So you’d put the probability of CEV working at between 90 and 99 percent?
No, rather lower than that (80%?). But I think that we’re more likely to attain only somewhat-flawed versions of the future without something CEV-ish. This reduces my estimate of the value of getting them kind of right, relative to getting good outcomes through worlds which do achieve something like CEV. I think that probably ex-post provides another very large discount factor, and the significant chance that it does provides another modest ex-ante discount factor (maybe another 80%; none of my numbers here are deeply considered).
No, rather lower than that (80%?). But I think that we’re more likely to attain only somewhat-flawed versions of the future without something CEV-ish. This reduces my estimate of the value of getting them kind of right, relative to getting good outcomes through worlds which do achieve something like CEV. I think that probably ex-post provides another very large discount factor, and the significant chance that it does provides another modest ex-ante discount factor (maybe another 80%; none of my numbers here are deeply considered).