I made a quick Manifold Market for estimating my counterfactual impact from 2023-2030.
One one hand, this seems kind of uncomfortable—on the other, I’d really like to feel more comfortable with precise and public estimates of this sort of thing.
Feel free to bet!
Still need to make progress on the best resolution criteria.
Note that while we’ll have some clarity in 2030, we’d presumably have less clarity than at the end of history (and even then things could be murky, I dunno)
I made a quick Manifold Market for estimating my counterfactual impact from 2023-2030.
One one hand, this seems kind of uncomfortable—on the other, I’d really like to feel more comfortable with precise and public estimates of this sort of thing.
Feel free to bet!
Still need to make progress on the best resolution criteria.
If someone thinks LTFF is net negative, but your work is net positive, should they answer in the negative ranges?
Yes. That said, this of course complicates things.
Note that while we’ll have some clarity in 2030, we’d presumably have less clarity than at the end of history (and even then things could be murky, I dunno)
For sure. This would just be the mean estimate, I assume.