Also what are the main or best open source projects in the space? Or if someone wanted to actually use LMs for forecasting, what is better than just asking o3 to produce a forecast?
There’s some relevant discussion here:https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TG2zCDCozMcDLgoJ5/metaculus-q4-ai-benchmarking-bots-are-closing-the-gap?commentId=TvwwuKB6rNASzMNooBasically, it seems like people haven’t outperformed the Metaculus template bot much, which IMO is fairly underwhelming, but it is what it is. You can do simple tips though like run it a few times and average the results.
Also what are the main or best open source projects in the space? Or if someone wanted to actually use LMs for forecasting, what is better than just asking o3 to produce a forecast?
There’s some relevant discussion here:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TG2zCDCozMcDLgoJ5/metaculus-q4-ai-benchmarking-bots-are-closing-the-gap?commentId=TvwwuKB6rNASzMNoo
Basically, it seems like people haven’t outperformed the Metaculus template bot much, which IMO is fairly underwhelming, but it is what it is.
You can do simple tips though like run it a few times and average the results.