I’m sure some people are using custom AI tools for polymarket, but I don’t expect that to be very public.
I was focusing on Metaculus/Manifold, where I don’t think there’s much AI bot engagement yet. (Metaculus does have a dedicated tournament, but that’s separate from the main part we see, I believe).
Also what are the main or best open source projects in the space? Or if someone wanted to actually use LMs for forecasting, what is better than just asking o3 to produce a forecast?
I haven’t been following this area closely, but why aren’t they making a lot of money on polymarket?
I’m sure some people are using custom AI tools for polymarket, but I don’t expect that to be very public.
I was focusing on Metaculus/Manifold, where I don’t think there’s much AI bot engagement yet. (Metaculus does have a dedicated tournament, but that’s separate from the main part we see, I believe).
Also what are the main or best open source projects in the space? Or if someone wanted to actually use LMs for forecasting, what is better than just asking o3 to produce a forecast?
There’s some relevant discussion here:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TG2zCDCozMcDLgoJ5/metaculus-q4-ai-benchmarking-bots-are-closing-the-gap?commentId=TvwwuKB6rNASzMNoo
Basically, it seems like people haven’t outperformed the Metaculus template bot much, which IMO is fairly underwhelming, but it is what it is.
You can do simple tips though like run it a few times and average the results.