FWIW I’m also skeptical of naive ex ante differences of >~2 orders of magnitude between causes, after accounting for meta-EA effects. That said, I also think maybe our culture will be better if we celebrate doing naively good things over doing things that are externally high status.*
But I don’t feel too strongly, main point of the shortform was just that I talk to some people who are disillusioned because they feel like EA tells them that their jobs are less important than other jobs, and I’m just like, whoa, that’s just such a weird impression on an absolute scale (like knowing that you won a million dollars in a lottery but being sad that your friend won a billion). I’ll think about how to reframe the post so it’s less likely to invite such relative comparisons, but I also think denying the importance of the relative comparisons is the point.
*I also do somewhat buy arguments by you and Holden Karnofsky and others that it’s more important for skill/career capital etc building to try to do really hard things even if they’re naively useless. The phrase “mixed strategy” comes to mind.
That said, I also think maybe our culture will be better if we celebrate doing naively good things over doing things that are externally high status.
This is a reasonable theory. But I think there are lots of naively good things that are broadly accessible to people in a way that “janitor at MIRI” isn’t, hence my critique.
(Not that this one Shortform post is doing anything wrong on its own — I just hear this kind of example used too often relative to examples like the ones I mentioned, including in this popular post, though the “sweep the floors at CEA” example was a bit less central there.)
Hmm I think the most likely way downside stuff will happen is by flipping the sign rather than reducing the magnitude, curious why your model is different.
FWIW I’m also skeptical of naive ex ante differences of >~2 orders of magnitude between causes, after accounting for meta-EA effects. That said, I also think maybe our culture will be better if we celebrate doing naively good things over doing things that are externally high status.*
But I don’t feel too strongly, main point of the shortform was just that I talk to some people who are disillusioned because they feel like EA tells them that their jobs are less important than other jobs, and I’m just like, whoa, that’s just such a weird impression on an absolute scale (like knowing that you won a million dollars in a lottery but being sad that your friend won a billion). I’ll think about how to reframe the post so it’s less likely to invite such relative comparisons, but I also think denying the importance of the relative comparisons is the point.
*I also do somewhat buy arguments by you and Holden Karnofsky and others that it’s more important for skill/career capital etc building to try to do really hard things even if they’re naively useless. The phrase “mixed strategy” comes to mind.
This is a reasonable theory. But I think there are lots of naively good things that are broadly accessible to people in a way that “janitor at MIRI” isn’t, hence my critique.
(Not that this one Shortform post is doing anything wrong on its own — I just hear this kind of example used too often relative to examples like the ones I mentioned, including in this popular post, though the “sweep the floors at CEA” example was a bit less central there.)
I feel like the meta effects are likely to exaggerate the differences, not reduce them? Surprised about the line of reasoning here.
Hmm I think the most likely way downside stuff will happen is by flipping the sign rather than reducing the magnitude, curious why your model is different.
I wrote a bit more in the linked shortform.