In the Precipice, Toby Ord very roughly estimates that the risk of extinction from supervolcanoes this century is 1⁄10,000 (as opposed to 1⁄10,000 from natural pandemics, 1⁄1,000 from nuclear war, 1⁄30 from engineered pandemics and 1⁄10 from AGI). Should more longtermist resources be put into measuring and averting the worst consequences of supervolcanic eruption?
More concretely, I know a PhD geologist who’s interested in doing an EA/longtermist career and is currently thinking of re-skilling for AI policy. Given that (AFAICT) literally zero people in our community currently works on supervolcanoes, should I instead convince him to investigate supervolcanoes at least for a few weeks/months?
If he hasn’t seriously considered working on supervolcanoes before, then it definitely seems worth raising the idea with him.
I know almost nothing about supervolcanoes, but, assuming Toby’s estimate is reasonable, I wouldn’t be too surprised if going from zero to one longtermist researcher in this area is more valuable than adding an additional AI policy researcher.
In the Precipice, Toby Ord very roughly estimates that the risk of extinction from supervolcanoes this century is 1⁄10,000 (as opposed to 1⁄10,000 from natural pandemics, 1⁄1,000 from nuclear war, 1⁄30 from engineered pandemics and 1⁄10 from AGI). Should more longtermist resources be put into measuring and averting the worst consequences of supervolcanic eruption?
More concretely, I know a PhD geologist who’s interested in doing an EA/longtermist career and is currently thinking of re-skilling for AI policy. Given that (AFAICT) literally zero people in our community currently works on supervolcanoes, should I instead convince him to investigate supervolcanoes at least for a few weeks/months?
If he hasn’t seriously considered working on supervolcanoes before, then it definitely seems worth raising the idea with him.
I know almost nothing about supervolcanoes, but, assuming Toby’s estimate is reasonable, I wouldn’t be too surprised if going from zero to one longtermist researcher in this area is more valuable than adding an additional AI policy researcher.
The biggest risk here I believe is anthropogenic; supervolcanoes could theoretically be weaponized.