I think that these factors might be making it socially harder to be a non-longtermist who engages with the EA community, and that is an important and missing part of the ongoing discussion about EA community norms changing.
Although note that Will MacAskill supports lead elimination from a broad longtermist perspective:
Well, it’s because there’s more of a rational market now, or something like an efficient market of giving — where the marginal stuff that could or could not be funded in AI safety is like, the best stuff’s been funded, and so the marginal stuff is much less clear. Whereas something in this broad longtermist area — like reducing people’s exposure to lead, improving brain and other health development — especially if it’s like, “We’re actually making real concrete progress on this, on really quite a small budget as well,” that just looks really good. We can just fund this and it’s no downside as well. And I think that’s something that people might not appreciate: just how much that sort of work is valued, even by the most hardcore longtermists.
Definitely mostly using it to mean focused on x-risk, but most because that seems like the largest portion / biggest focus area for the community.
I interpret that Will MacAskill quote as saying that even the most hardcore longtermists care about nearterm outcomes (which seems true), not that lead reduction is supported from a longtermist perspective. I think it’s definitely right that most longtermists I meet are excited about neartermist work. But I also think that the social pressures in the community currently still push toward longtermism.
To be clear, I don’t necessarily think this is a bad thing—it definitely could be good given how neglected longtermist issues are. But I’ve found the conversation around this to feel somewhat like it is missing what the critics are trying to get at, and that this dynamic is more real than people give it credit for.
Although note that Will MacAskill supports lead elimination from a broad longtermist perspective:
Also, how are you defining “longtermist” here? You seem to be using it to mean “focused on x-risk”.
Definitely mostly using it to mean focused on x-risk, but most because that seems like the largest portion / biggest focus area for the community.
I interpret that Will MacAskill quote as saying that even the most hardcore longtermists care about nearterm outcomes (which seems true), not that lead reduction is supported from a longtermist perspective. I think it’s definitely right that most longtermists I meet are excited about neartermist work. But I also think that the social pressures in the community currently still push toward longtermism.
To be clear, I don’t necessarily think this is a bad thing—it definitely could be good given how neglected longtermist issues are. But I’ve found the conversation around this to feel somewhat like it is missing what the critics are trying to get at, and that this dynamic is more real than people give it credit for.