Thanks for the feedback. I cited the most recent study that claims to have identified more eruptions than previous studies: Rougier, J., Sparks, R. S. J., Cashman, K. V., & Brown, S. K. (2018). The global magnitude–frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 482, 621–629. However, perhaps I should not update so strongly because you are right that other estimates are closer to the order of 100,000 years. That is good to think about what it means in terms of existential risk historically. Survivorship bias should not change things too much. Our circumstance is significantly different now. On the plus side, we have more population, more food storage and better knowledge of what is happening. But on the minus side, a super volcanic eruption could raise tensions such that nuclear war breaks out, which would be even worse.
Thanks for the feedback. I cited the most recent study that claims to have identified more eruptions than previous studies: Rougier, J., Sparks, R. S. J., Cashman, K. V., & Brown, S. K. (2018). The global magnitude–frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 482, 621–629. However, perhaps I should not update so strongly because you are right that other estimates are closer to the order of 100,000 years. That is good to think about what it means in terms of existential risk historically. Survivorship bias should not change things too much. Our circumstance is significantly different now. On the plus side, we have more population, more food storage and better knowledge of what is happening. But on the minus side, a super volcanic eruption could raise tensions such that nuclear war breaks out, which would be even worse.