Thanks for this interesting paper. Having looked into this a bit, my impression is that some of the figures on the risk posed by supervolcanoes are too high.
Estimates of the frequency of VEI=8 eruptions vary from 30,000 years to around 130,000 years ( W. Aspinall et al., “Volcano Hazard and Exposure in GFDRR Priority
Countries and Risk Mitigation Measures,” Volcano Risk Study 0100806-
00-1-R, 2011, 15; Susan Loughlin et al., Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk
(Cambridge University Press, 2015), 97)
If VEI=8 events are as frequent as suggested in your paper (on the order of 10,000 years), it seems extremely unlikely that they would constitute an ex risk: the homo genus would have had to have gone through this 120 times and survived at much lower levels of technical sophistication than today.
Some of the literature estimates the frequency of VEI=9 events at one every 30 million years, with massive uncertainty. (Aspinall et al., “Volcano Hazard and Exposure in GFDRR Priority
Countries and Risk Mitigation Measures,” 15.)
Thanks for the feedback. I cited the most recent study that claims to have identified more eruptions than previous studies: Rougier, J., Sparks, R. S. J., Cashman, K. V., & Brown, S. K. (2018). The global magnitude–frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 482, 621–629. However, perhaps I should not update so strongly because you are right that other estimates are closer to the order of 100,000 years. That is good to think about what it means in terms of existential risk historically. Survivorship bias should not change things too much. Our circumstance is significantly different now. On the plus side, we have more population, more food storage and better knowledge of what is happening. But on the minus side, a super volcanic eruption could raise tensions such that nuclear war breaks out, which would be even worse.
Thanks for this interesting paper. Having looked into this a bit, my impression is that some of the figures on the risk posed by supervolcanoes are too high.
Estimates of the frequency of VEI=8 eruptions vary from 30,000 years to around 130,000 years ( W. Aspinall et al., “Volcano Hazard and Exposure in GFDRR Priority Countries and Risk Mitigation Measures,” Volcano Risk Study 0100806- 00-1-R, 2011, 15; Susan Loughlin et al., Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk (Cambridge University Press, 2015), 97)
If VEI=8 events are as frequent as suggested in your paper (on the order of 10,000 years), it seems extremely unlikely that they would constitute an ex risk: the homo genus would have had to have gone through this 120 times and survived at much lower levels of technical sophistication than today.
Some of the literature estimates the frequency of VEI=9 events at one every 30 million years, with massive uncertainty. (Aspinall et al., “Volcano Hazard and Exposure in GFDRR Priority Countries and Risk Mitigation Measures,” 15.)
Thanks for the feedback. I cited the most recent study that claims to have identified more eruptions than previous studies: Rougier, J., Sparks, R. S. J., Cashman, K. V., & Brown, S. K. (2018). The global magnitude–frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 482, 621–629. However, perhaps I should not update so strongly because you are right that other estimates are closer to the order of 100,000 years. That is good to think about what it means in terms of existential risk historically. Survivorship bias should not change things too much. Our circumstance is significantly different now. On the plus side, we have more population, more food storage and better knowledge of what is happening. But on the minus side, a super volcanic eruption could raise tensions such that nuclear war breaks out, which would be even worse.