I think the modal no-Anthropic counterfactual does not have an alignment-agnostic AI company that’s remotely competitive with OpenAI, which means there’s no external target for this Amazon investment. It’s not an accident that Anthropic was founded by former OpenAI staff who were substantially responsible for OpenAI’s earlier GPT scaling successes.
What do you think the bottleneck for this alternate AI company’s competitiveness would be? If it’s talent, why is it insurmountable? E.g. what would prevent them from hiring away people from the current top labs?
There are alternatives—x.AI and Inflection. Arguably they only got going because the race was pushed to fever pitch by Anthropic splitting from OpenAI.
It seems more likely to me that they would have gotten started anyway once ChatGPT came out. Although I was interpreting the counterfactual as being if Anthropic had declined to partner with Amazon, rather than if Anthropic had not existed.
I’m not sure if they would’ve ramped up quite so quick (i.e. getting massive investment) if it wasn’t for the race heating up with Anthropic entering. Either way, it’s all bad, and a case of which is worse.
I think the modal no-Anthropic counterfactual does not have an alignment-agnostic AI company that’s remotely competitive with OpenAI, which means there’s no external target for this Amazon investment. It’s not an accident that Anthropic was founded by former OpenAI staff who were substantially responsible for OpenAI’s earlier GPT scaling successes.
What do you think the bottleneck for this alternate AI company’s competitiveness would be? If it’s talent, why is it insurmountable? E.g. what would prevent them from hiring away people from the current top labs?
There are alternatives—x.AI and Inflection. Arguably they only got going because the race was pushed to fever pitch by Anthropic splitting from OpenAI.
It seems more likely to me that they would have gotten started anyway once ChatGPT came out. Although I was interpreting the counterfactual as being if Anthropic had declined to partner with Amazon, rather than if Anthropic had not existed.
I’m not sure if they would’ve ramped up quite so quick (i.e. getting massive investment) if it wasn’t for the race heating up with Anthropic entering. Either way, it’s all bad, and a case of which is worse.