The first point only applies to long-termist charities as far as I can tell. I think if you’re earning to give and excited to give to GiveDirectly (or other charities that are 2-5x more effective) there’s not a problem.
Agreed that my arguments don’t apply to donations to GiveDirectly, it’s just that they’re 5-10x less effective than top GiveWell charities.
I think that part of my arguments don’t apply to other GiveWell charities, but the general concern still does. If AMF (or whoever) has funding capacity, why shouldn’t I just count on GiveWell to fill it?
I have also been thinking about whether GiveWell/other donors will fill the funding needs at AMF and I should look for something in between AMF and GiveDirectly that needs funding.
1 Day Sooner (promoting greater use of Human Challenge Trials for vaccine development) is the global health group I’m personally most excited about. I would personally probably invest money in them over AMF if I was doing global health donations even if AMF is funding constrained, though I’d want to think carefully about both 1 Day Sooner and AMF if I was advising or donating considerable amounts of money in global health.
Note that both subcause areas are less well-studied and higher uncertainty than AMF. I’m not aware of Pareto improvements to AMF along the risk to cost-effectiveness frontier.
For GiveWell and its top charities, excluding GiveDirectly, I think a lot depends on whether you expect GiveWell to have more RFMF than funds anytime in the near future. The obvious question is why wouldn’t OpenPhil fill in the gaps. Maybe if GiveWell’s RFMF expands enough then OpenPhil won’t want to spend that much on GiveWell-level interventions?
GiveWell gives some estimates here (Rollover Funding FAQ | GiveWell) saying they expect to have capacity to spend down their funds in 2023, but they admit they’re conservative on the funding side and ambitious on the RFMF side.
If GiveWell will actually be funding constrained within a few years, I feel pretty good about donating to them, effectively letting them hold the money in OpenPhil investments until they identify spending opportunities at the 5-10x GD level (especially where donating now yields benefits like matching).
If they’re ultimately going to get everything 5x+ funded by OpenPhil no matter what, then your argument that I’m donating peanuts to the huge pile of OpenPhil or Moskovitz money seems right to me.
GiveWell does say “If we’re able to raise funds significantly faster than we’ve forecast, we will prioritize finding additional RFMF to meet those funds.” So it sounds like they’re almost-committing to not letting donor money get funged by OpenPhil for more than a few years.
The first point only applies to long-termist charities as far as I can tell. I think if you’re earning to give and excited to give to GiveDirectly (or other charities that are 2-5x more effective) there’s not a problem.
Agreed that my arguments don’t apply to donations to GiveDirectly, it’s just that they’re 5-10x less effective than top GiveWell charities.
I think that part of my arguments don’t apply to other GiveWell charities, but the general concern still does. If AMF (or whoever) has funding capacity, why shouldn’t I just count on GiveWell to fill it?
I have also been thinking about whether GiveWell/other donors will fill the funding needs at AMF and I should look for something in between AMF and GiveDirectly that needs funding.
1 Day Sooner (promoting greater use of Human Challenge Trials for vaccine development) is the global health group I’m personally most excited about. I would personally probably invest money in them over AMF if I was doing global health donations even if AMF is funding constrained, though I’d want to think carefully about both 1 Day Sooner and AMF if I was advising or donating considerable amounts of money in global health.
I also feel fairly optimistic about lead reduction, based on this Rethink Priorities report.
Note that both subcause areas are less well-studied and higher uncertainty than AMF. I’m not aware of Pareto improvements to AMF along the risk to cost-effectiveness frontier.
For GiveWell and its top charities, excluding GiveDirectly, I think a lot depends on whether you expect GiveWell to have more RFMF than funds anytime in the near future. The obvious question is why wouldn’t OpenPhil fill in the gaps. Maybe if GiveWell’s RFMF expands enough then OpenPhil won’t want to spend that much on GiveWell-level interventions?
GiveWell gives some estimates here (Rollover Funding FAQ | GiveWell) saying they expect to have capacity to spend down their funds in 2023, but they admit they’re conservative on the funding side and ambitious on the RFMF side.
If GiveWell will actually be funding constrained within a few years, I feel pretty good about donating to them, effectively letting them hold the money in OpenPhil investments until they identify spending opportunities at the 5-10x GD level (especially where donating now yields benefits like matching).
If they’re ultimately going to get everything 5x+ funded by OpenPhil no matter what, then your argument that I’m donating peanuts to the huge pile of OpenPhil or Moskovitz money seems right to me.
GiveWell does say “If we’re able to raise funds significantly faster than we’ve forecast, we will prioritize finding additional RFMF to meet those funds.” So it sounds like they’re almost-committing to not letting donor money get funged by OpenPhil for more than a few years.