“Conservatively, each vegan might plausibly create/preserve 5-10 other vegans over the course of a lifetime”
The word ‘might’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. If veganism actually had this kind of multiplier, we would expect the number of vegans to grow by 5X each generation. Vegetarianism hasn’t experienced this kind of generational growth. I think claiming veganism will have this growth rate is an extraordinary claim that would require extraordinary evidence.
[I say this as a lacto-veg who doesn’t personally do offsetting, but tbh that is more from a moral purity vs harm minimization standpoint]
If everyvegan turned 5 other people over the course of their lifetime, then we would only expect the number of vegans to grow something like 10x over a whole lifetime − 60 years or so—and the number of vegans has in fact grown enormously since the 1970s. Besides, many vegans who are included in surveys do not intend to stick with their diet, or do not want to seem “preachy,” and so have less of an effect on their immediate circle.
However, population-level data on vegans is pretty spotty and you’re right that I don’t have any good evidence besides the Veganuary study cited in the piece, which only asked how many people surrounding the subject had tried veganism in a period of six months after the trial period.
The claim is primarily based on (1) my own experience, having been vegan for three years and having so far turned two close friends vegan and one vegetarian (2) my experience with professional activists, who can often turn one person vegan every week just by tabling for an hour or two. If you speak to other serious vegans (such as the commenter below who mentioned “several people”) I suspect that they’ll give you a similar number.
I think you’re assuming that those converts stay veg*n, which seems moderately unlikely. I don’t doubt that you are accurately reflecting your experience, but I do think you haven’t seen the long-term effects.
Given that Gallup polls have consistently shown 4-6% of US folks were vegetarian over the last 30 years, I think that approximate maintenance is more plausible than strong exponential growth.
Funny diversion, if you really think that a vegan will make 5 converts over their lifetime (who will do the same etc), then we are only 3 generations away from complete veganism (1% → 5% → 25% → 100%). So the value of a marginal vegan matters less for their multiplier effect, since we’ll be fully saturated in 3 generations anyways. The direct impact still matters, of course.
Right—the assumption here is that only a small minority of vegans (<10%) are currently committed and vocal enough to be actively convincing their friends and family. Like you said, the high recidivism rate has to be currently being counterbalanced by opposite forces to keep the population of vegans steady (which is more or less what we’ve observed over recent decades). And from conversations with other committed vegans, I think a big chunk of that “maintenance” is being accomplished by the persuasive efforts of committed vegans—which all EAs have the power to become!
“Conservatively, each vegan might plausibly create/preserve 5-10 other vegans over the course of a lifetime”
The word ‘might’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. If veganism actually had this kind of multiplier, we would expect the number of vegans to grow by 5X each generation. Vegetarianism hasn’t experienced this kind of generational growth. I think claiming veganism will have this growth rate is an extraordinary claim that would require extraordinary evidence.
[I say this as a lacto-veg who doesn’t personally do offsetting, but tbh that is more from a moral purity vs harm minimization standpoint]
If every vegan turned 5 other people over the course of their lifetime, then we would only expect the number of vegans to grow something like 10x over a whole lifetime − 60 years or so—and the number of vegans has in fact grown enormously since the 1970s. Besides, many vegans who are included in surveys do not intend to stick with their diet, or do not want to seem “preachy,” and so have less of an effect on their immediate circle.
However, population-level data on vegans is pretty spotty and you’re right that I don’t have any good evidence besides the Veganuary study cited in the piece, which only asked how many people surrounding the subject had tried veganism in a period of six months after the trial period.
The claim is primarily based on (1) my own experience, having been vegan for three years and having so far turned two close friends vegan and one vegetarian (2) my experience with professional activists, who can often turn one person vegan every week just by tabling for an hour or two. If you speak to other serious vegans (such as the commenter below who mentioned “several people”) I suspect that they’ll give you a similar number.
I think you’re assuming that those converts stay veg*n, which seems moderately unlikely. I don’t doubt that you are accurately reflecting your experience, but I do think you haven’t seen the long-term effects.
This article claims around 82% of veg*ns eventually lapse, which means a 5X conversion rate is actually only enough to keep the movement steady. https://faunalytics.org/a-summary-of-faunalytics-study-of-current-and-former-vegetarians-and-vegans/
Given that Gallup polls have consistently shown 4-6% of US folks were vegetarian over the last 30 years, I think that approximate maintenance is more plausible than strong exponential growth.
Funny diversion, if you really think that a vegan will make 5 converts over their lifetime (who will do the same etc), then we are only 3 generations away from complete veganism (1% → 5% → 25% → 100%). So the value of a marginal vegan matters less for their multiplier effect, since we’ll be fully saturated in 3 generations anyways. The direct impact still matters, of course.
Right—the assumption here is that only a small minority of vegans (<10%) are currently committed and vocal enough to be actively convincing their friends and family. Like you said, the high recidivism rate has to be currently being counterbalanced by opposite forces to keep the population of vegans steady (which is more or less what we’ve observed over recent decades). And from conversations with other committed vegans, I think a big chunk of that “maintenance” is being accomplished by the persuasive efforts of committed vegans—which all EAs have the power to become!