I’m working with the FHI Bio team, and we don’t have one, and aren’t aware of any. At the same time, building the components of such a forecast is a to-do item on our list, and we have a number of ideas and leads on how this can or should be done well. (I have done some early-stage, very rough expert elicitation on the subject.)
If there are people interested in developing such a timeline with proper treatment of uncertainties, and working on forecasting tools and similar on the topic, I’d be very interested in chatting about how they want to proceed, working with them and/or supporting their work, and finding collaborators and resources for doing so in a way that supports other research in the area.
When I have a question about the future, I like to ask it on Metaculus. Do you have any operationalisations of synthetic biology milestones that would be useful to ask there?
I’m working with the FHI Bio team, and we don’t have one, and aren’t aware of any. At the same time, building the components of such a forecast is a to-do item on our list, and we have a number of ideas and leads on how this can or should be done well. (I have done some early-stage, very rough expert elicitation on the subject.)
If there are people interested in developing such a timeline with proper treatment of uncertainties, and working on forecasting tools and similar on the topic, I’d be very interested in chatting about how they want to proceed, working with them and/or supporting their work, and finding collaborators and resources for doing so in a way that supports other research in the area.
When I have a question about the future, I like to ask it on Metaculus. Do you have any operationalisations of synthetic biology milestones that would be useful to ask there?