FWIW, I think the upper bound of my 80% confidence interval would be above 10% more effective and 3 years staying at the org, and definitely above 1% more effect and 0.5 years staying there.
Yeah, I disagree with this. I’d expect most interventions to have a small effect, and in particular I expect it to just be hard to change people’s actions by writing words. In particular, I’d be much higher if I was thinking about the difference between a completely terrible hiring round and an excellent one, but I don’t know that people start off all that terrible or that this particular post brings people up all that much.
That seems reasonable. I think my intuitions would still differ from yours, but I don’t have that much reason to expect my intuitions are well-calibrated here, nor have I thought about this carefully and explicitly.
To answer this specifically:
Yeah, I disagree with this. I’d expect most interventions to have a small effect, and in particular I expect it to just be hard to change people’s actions by writing words. In particular, I’d be much higher if I was thinking about the difference between a completely terrible hiring round and an excellent one, but I don’t know that people start off all that terrible or that this particular post brings people up all that much.
That seems reasonable. I think my intuitions would still differ from yours, but I don’t have that much reason to expect my intuitions are well-calibrated here, nor have I thought about this carefully and explicitly.