Yeah, I definitely agree. This was part of my motivation for writing that draft. (Also, even if just āpositive trendsā was enoughāwhich I agree that it isnātāfinding that werepositive trends in the past doesnāt guarantee there willbepositive trends in the future.)
More broadly, my impression is that some EAs are very confident the answer to the titular question is āYesā, and I feel like I havenāt seen very strongarguments for such high confidence.
The draft is not necessarily arguing in favour of āYesā (or āNoā) overall; itās primarily intended to highlight the question and stimulate and scaffold discussion.
(Happy to share the draft, if you or others are interested.)
Yeah, I definitely agree. This was part of my motivation for writing that draft. (Also, even if just āpositive trendsā was enoughāwhich I agree that it isnātāfinding that were positive trends in the past doesnāt guarantee there will be positive trends in the future.)
More broadly, my impression is that some EAs are very confident the answer to the titular question is āYesā, and I feel like I havenāt seen very strong arguments for such high confidence.
The draft is not necessarily arguing in favour of āYesā (or āNoā) overall; itās primarily intended to highlight the question and stimulate and scaffold discussion.
(Happy to share the draft, if you or others are interested.)
Thanks, yes Iād be interested.
Ok, Iāve sent you a message :)