Yeah, I definitely agree. This was part of my motivation for writing that draft. (Also, even if just “positive trends” was enough—which I agree that it isn’t—finding that werepositive trends in the past doesn’t guarantee there willbepositive trends in the future.)
More broadly, my impression is that some EAs are very confident the answer to the titular question is “Yes”, and I feel like I haven’t seen very strongarguments for such high confidence.
The draft is not necessarily arguing in favour of “Yes” (or “No”) overall; it’s primarily intended to highlight the question and stimulate and scaffold discussion.
(Happy to share the draft, if you or others are interested.)
Yeah, I definitely agree. This was part of my motivation for writing that draft. (Also, even if just “positive trends” was enough—which I agree that it isn’t—finding that were positive trends in the past doesn’t guarantee there will be positive trends in the future.)
More broadly, my impression is that some EAs are very confident the answer to the titular question is “Yes”, and I feel like I haven’t seen very strong arguments for such high confidence.
The draft is not necessarily arguing in favour of “Yes” (or “No”) overall; it’s primarily intended to highlight the question and stimulate and scaffold discussion.
(Happy to share the draft, if you or others are interested.)
Thanks, yes I’d be interested.
Ok, I’ve sent you a message :)