“Will humanity achieve its full potential, as long as existential catastrophe is prevented?”
I think an argument in favour of “Yes” is that it might be highly likely that, if we don’t suffer an existential catastrophe, there will be positive trends across the long-term future in all key domains.
That there will be positive trends doesn’t necessarily entail that humanity (or some other entities) will achieve its full potential, however. It’s possible that the future will be better than the present, without humanity achieving its full potential. And the value difference between such a future and a future where humanity achieves its full potential may be vast.
I agree that there is an historical argument for positive future trends, but it seems that one needs additional steps to conclude that humanity will achieve its full potential.
Yeah, I definitely agree. This was part of my motivation for writing that draft. (Also, even if just “positive trends” was enough—which I agree that it isn’t—finding that werepositive trends in the past doesn’t guarantee there willbepositive trends in the future.)
More broadly, my impression is that some EAs are very confident the answer to the titular question is “Yes”, and I feel like I haven’t seen very strongarguments for such high confidence.
The draft is not necessarily arguing in favour of “Yes” (or “No”) overall; it’s primarily intended to highlight the question and stimulate and scaffold discussion.
(Happy to share the draft, if you or others are interested.)
That there will be positive trends doesn’t necessarily entail that humanity (or some other entities) will achieve its full potential, however. It’s possible that the future will be better than the present, without humanity achieving its full potential. And the value difference between such a future and a future where humanity achieves its full potential may be vast.
I agree that there is an historical argument for positive future trends, but it seems that one needs additional steps to conclude that humanity will achieve its full potential.
Yeah, I definitely agree. This was part of my motivation for writing that draft. (Also, even if just “positive trends” was enough—which I agree that it isn’t—finding that were positive trends in the past doesn’t guarantee there will be positive trends in the future.)
More broadly, my impression is that some EAs are very confident the answer to the titular question is “Yes”, and I feel like I haven’t seen very strong arguments for such high confidence.
The draft is not necessarily arguing in favour of “Yes” (or “No”) overall; it’s primarily intended to highlight the question and stimulate and scaffold discussion.
(Happy to share the draft, if you or others are interested.)
Thanks, yes I’d be interested.
Ok, I’ve sent you a message :)