This sounds slightly related to something 1DaySooner is just starting, which is a risk model for a HCT, which will look at the risk of death, and hopefully also of long term disability. Ideally, it would also consider the probability conditional on rescue therapies being available or becoming available. To do that, we’re focusing on a population subset, but the basis for the model is data that includes multiple ages, so extending that is easy.
It is likely that this model can be plugged into models for the other portions of the risk, isolation, etc. and it might be useful to collaborate. It’s also an important project on its own, so if there are people interested in working with us on that, I’d be happy to find more volunteers familiar with R and data analysis.
Yes David, we would love to build off that risk model and include it in our group house microcovid estimates project. Knowing how to value a “microcovid” is an important step in choosing how many microcovids per year you should select as your tolerance.
This is still under very active development, but the github repository is here, and a toy version of what we’d like to produce with better estimates is here, as a Rshiny App.
This sounds slightly related to something 1DaySooner is just starting, which is a risk model for a HCT, which will look at the risk of death, and hopefully also of long term disability. Ideally, it would also consider the probability conditional on rescue therapies being available or becoming available. To do that, we’re focusing on a population subset, but the basis for the model is data that includes multiple ages, so extending that is easy.
It is likely that this model can be plugged into models for the other portions of the risk, isolation, etc. and it might be useful to collaborate. It’s also an important project on its own, so if there are people interested in working with us on that, I’d be happy to find more volunteers familiar with R and data analysis.
Yes David, we would love to build off that risk model and include it in our group house microcovid estimates project. Knowing how to value a “microcovid” is an important step in choosing how many microcovids per year you should select as your tolerance.
This is still under very active development, but the github repository is here, and a toy version of what we’d like to produce with better estimates is here, as a Rshiny App.