First, RE Bright Line Watch: I take your point and am going to revisit the label. That said, I’ll offer some relevant indicators on BLW’s track record:
During Trump’s first term, BLW & their expert respondents did not rate the state of democracy as poorly as the general public did, and their ratings remained quite stable over the term.
BLW’s research is cited by outlets across the political spectrum, including Fox, Reason, and the Daily Mail.
BLW’s reports have harshly criticized the Biden administration and figures on the left as well.
And then, this series is designed to scrutinize BLW’s expert forecasters by comparing them against the ultimate outcomes as well as the Metaculus community.
RE the bar chart: This is how resolutions render in ‘consumer view.’ Resolved ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ bars are actually the same height.
Hi @Larks, good comments.
First, RE Bright Line Watch:
I take your point and am going to revisit the label. That said, I’ll offer some relevant indicators on BLW’s track record:
During Trump’s first term, BLW & their expert respondents did not rate the state of democracy as poorly as the general public did, and their ratings remained quite stable over the term.
BLW’s research is cited by outlets across the political spectrum, including Fox, Reason, and the Daily Mail.
BLW’s reports have harshly criticized the Biden administration and figures on the left as well.
And then, this series is designed to scrutinize BLW’s expert forecasters by comparing them against the ultimate outcomes as well as the Metaculus community.
RE the bar chart:
This is how resolutions render in ‘consumer view.’ Resolved ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ bars are actually the same height.