Is this actually meaningfully the case? As far as I can see, this is basically a group of left-wing academics (some of whom literally worked for the Democrats!) who assembled a list of things they think the current administration might do and called them Threats to Democracy. They omitted any questions which might paint the current administration in a more favourable light, or the prior democrat administration in a negative light.
The scoring also seems pretty biased. For example, for the question about whether the DoJ would override normal procedures to protect the President’s family, the Biden Administration is given a (positive) scoring of ‘no’, even though the DoJ tried to give the President’s son a sweetheart plea deal that would protect him from charges of being a drug user in possession of a firearm (and potential lengthy prison sentence), and whistleblowers say the prosecution deliberately slow-walked the process and leaked information to the defense.
Even the data presentation seems biased. For example, on this question, the Biden administration is scored as ‘yes’ (i.e. 100%) for 2023-2024. Yet for some reason the bar for 100% is shorter than Trump’s bar for 40%?
First, RE Bright Line Watch: I take your point and am going to revisit the label. That said, I’ll offer some relevant indicators on BLW’s track record:
During Trump’s first term, BLW & their expert respondents did not rate the state of democracy as poorly as the general public did, and their ratings remained quite stable over the term.
BLW’s research is cited by outlets across the political spectrum, including Fox, Reason, and the Daily Mail.
BLW’s reports have harshly criticized the Biden administration and figures on the left as well.
And then, this series is designed to scrutinize BLW’s expert forecasters by comparing them against the ultimate outcomes as well as the Metaculus community.
RE the bar chart: This is how resolutions render in ‘consumer view.’ Resolved ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ bars are actually the same height.
Is this actually meaningfully the case? As far as I can see, this is basically a group of left-wing academics (some of whom literally worked for the Democrats!) who assembled a list of things they think the current administration might do and called them Threats to Democracy. They omitted any questions which might paint the current administration in a more favourable light, or the prior democrat administration in a negative light.
The scoring also seems pretty biased. For example, for the question about whether the DoJ would override normal procedures to protect the President’s family, the Biden Administration is given a (positive) scoring of ‘no’, even though the DoJ tried to give the President’s son a sweetheart plea deal that would protect him from charges of being a drug user in possession of a firearm (and potential lengthy prison sentence), and whistleblowers say the prosecution deliberately slow-walked the process and leaked information to the defense.
Even the data presentation seems biased. For example, on this question, the Biden administration is scored as ‘yes’ (i.e. 100%) for 2023-2024. Yet for some reason the bar for 100% is shorter than Trump’s bar for 40%?
Hi @Larks, good comments.
First, RE Bright Line Watch:
I take your point and am going to revisit the label. That said, I’ll offer some relevant indicators on BLW’s track record:
During Trump’s first term, BLW & their expert respondents did not rate the state of democracy as poorly as the general public did, and their ratings remained quite stable over the term.
BLW’s research is cited by outlets across the political spectrum, including Fox, Reason, and the Daily Mail.
BLW’s reports have harshly criticized the Biden administration and figures on the left as well.
And then, this series is designed to scrutinize BLW’s expert forecasters by comparing them against the ultimate outcomes as well as the Metaculus community.
RE the bar chart:
This is how resolutions render in ‘consumer view.’ Resolved ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ bars are actually the same height.