Metaculus is also currently working on a similar idea (causal graphs). Here are some more people who are thinking or working on related ideas, (who might also appreciate your post): Adam Binks, Harrison Durland, David Manheim and Arieh Englander (see their MTAIR project).
Yeah I think Metaculus would be the best people to go talk about this. I know Gaia (Metaculus’s CEO) is super excited about causal graphs; happy to intro you two if you’d like!
Also: Max, what’s your background? Do you have the capacity to do direct work on this (ie build this out on your own?) If so, what are your bottlenecks (eg a year of funding for this project?)
My background is as a software developer, with professional web-dev experience. I’m currently doing a research master’s on ML (transformers) and last year did a project surveying the field of probabilistic programming languages.
Because of my Master’s, I don’t have capacity to work on this right at the moment, but come September this year it’s absolutely a candidate for things I would work on. I do have the skills and will have capacity to work on this on my own if I think that it’s my best option for impact. From September onward, I have two bottlenecks: 1) Funding 2) Finding the best use of my time among many options.
FWIW we’d love something like this in Manifold too, but that’s probably a bit farther out; Metaculus is much better developed in terms of complex in-depth estimation/forecasting, while Manifold is trying to focus on being as simple as possible.
Here’s a list of links and people I have found on this topic:
Paal Kvarberg has scoped this idea and got feedback in this document, but I think didn’t pursue the idea.
Ozzie Gooen got funding from LTFF in 2019 and is now involved in foretold.io, an open-source prediction market. This looks similar, but less ambitious than what I’m trying to do. The notebooks part in particular doesn’t look like it has adoption. He also started guesstimate, a probabilistic spreadsheet app which can do stuff like do drake’s equation with probability distributions. He also has a lesswrong collection of posts on “Prediction-driven collaborative reasoning systems”
These people from Manifold Market are building “charity prediction markets” which allow the use of real money in a prediction market, if the money will be donated to charity.
The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI, pronounced “query”), which have a variety of projects (which you can see on their public AirTable), including foretold.io (mentioned before), and a probabilistic programming language called Squiggle.
QURI’s current active project is Metaforecast, a site that collects and links to predictions and estimates from other platforms such as Metaculus.
Metaculus is also currently working on a similar idea (causal graphs). Here are some more people who are thinking or working on related ideas, (who might also appreciate your post): Adam Binks, Harrison Durland, David Manheim and Arieh Englander (see their MTAIR project).
Yeah I think Metaculus would be the best people to go talk about this. I know Gaia (Metaculus’s CEO) is super excited about causal graphs; happy to intro you two if you’d like!
Also: Max, what’s your background? Do you have the capacity to do direct work on this (ie build this out on your own?) If so, what are your bottlenecks (eg a year of funding for this project?)
My background is as a software developer, with professional web-dev experience. I’m currently doing a research master’s on ML (transformers) and last year did a project surveying the field of probabilistic programming languages.
Because of my Master’s, I don’t have capacity to work on this right at the moment, but come September this year it’s absolutely a candidate for things I would work on. I do have the skills and will have capacity to work on this on my own if I think that it’s my best option for impact. From September onward, I have two bottlenecks: 1) Funding 2) Finding the best use of my time among many options.
FWIW we’d love something like this in Manifold too, but that’s probably a bit farther out; Metaculus is much better developed in terms of complex in-depth estimation/forecasting, while Manifold is trying to focus on being as simple as possible.