The timeline would depend on the magnitude of the scale. I think a good analogy is to see how long it’s taking Poland’s military to absorb it’s sizable surge in investment spending. In short I’d guess anything substantial would take years.
And definitely it’s a risk. I think a key assumption is that the PLA isn’t yet ready to invade. If we were already in that window, then I’d be more concerned by the risks of that strategy.
I’m sure there’s some good empirical analysis that is either possible (or more likely) already been done that could inform this question—but it’s just far enough outside my wheelhouse that I haven’t found it.
The timeline would depend on the magnitude of the scale. I think a good analogy is to see how long it’s taking Poland’s military to absorb it’s sizable surge in investment spending. In short I’d guess anything substantial would take years.
And definitely it’s a risk. I think a key assumption is that the PLA isn’t yet ready to invade. If we were already in that window, then I’d be more concerned by the risks of that strategy.
I’m sure there’s some good empirical analysis that is either possible (or more likely) already been done that could inform this question—but it’s just far enough outside my wheelhouse that I haven’t found it.