How long would it take for changes such as troop numbers to be implemented and operational? The situation is not just static so China can react—is it possible that if they had serious plans to invade, then raising the prospect that doing so will become impossible by a certain time point may precipitate the very thing you’re seeking to avoid?
The timeline would depend on the magnitude of the scale. I think a good analogy is to see how long it’s taking Poland’s military to absorb it’s sizable surge in investment spending. In short I’d guess anything substantial would take years.
And definitely it’s a risk. I think a key assumption is that the PLA isn’t yet ready to invade. If we were already in that window, then I’d be more concerned by the risks of that strategy.
I’m sure there’s some good empirical analysis that is either possible (or more likely) already been done that could inform this question—but it’s just far enough outside my wheelhouse that I haven’t found it.
How long would it take for changes such as troop numbers to be implemented and operational? The situation is not just static so China can react—is it possible that if they had serious plans to invade, then raising the prospect that doing so will become impossible by a certain time point may precipitate the very thing you’re seeking to avoid?
The timeline would depend on the magnitude of the scale. I think a good analogy is to see how long it’s taking Poland’s military to absorb it’s sizable surge in investment spending. In short I’d guess anything substantial would take years.
And definitely it’s a risk. I think a key assumption is that the PLA isn’t yet ready to invade. If we were already in that window, then I’d be more concerned by the risks of that strategy.
I’m sure there’s some good empirical analysis that is either possible (or more likely) already been done that could inform this question—but it’s just far enough outside my wheelhouse that I haven’t found it.