I wrote much of this in January and February before it became apparent how much of an incredible own-goal we were going to make by undermining our alliances.
Personally, not addressing this came through as USA-absorbed; largely lacking self-awareness and making me itch to find a Chinese counterpoint.
As an European living in Australia and interested in China, right now I look worriedly at what will USA-backed Israel preemptively bomb next while everything in Western news seems to be about how Iran’s leader is “vulnerable” but with an “iron grip”[1] and how exactly will he be killed.
So I find it hard to take seriously a post that is all worried about Xi and China vs Taiwan while the USA are just some kind of abstract defender that just “maybe yes, maybe not” will join wars just because somehow it happens to have bases next door to China. And Russia. And Iran. Etc, etc.
The referring to CIA intelligence (just like with Iraq’s WMDs[2]) and seeing that the Plan A video starts with a nuclear strike from Russia (never USA, of course) doesn’t help.
I guess my question is: how much risk reduction would there be if USA stopped messing with the world?
ADDED 2 days later: USA “spy chief” repeats there’s no evidence Iran is building nuclear weapons. Trump disavows her. 12 hours later, there’s news about USA bombing Iran. Why should I be worried about Xi again?
I guess my question is: how much risk reduction would there be if USA stopped messing with the world?
If the messing around pertains to Taiwan -- a naive implication of my model is if the USA had a 0% chance of intervening in Taiwan this would decrease the risk of catastrophe by around 1% (percentage point). This seems difficult to influence though.
Personally, not addressing this came through as USA-absorbed; largely lacking self-awareness and making me itch to find a Chinese counterpoint.
As an European living in Australia and interested in China, right now I look worriedly at what will USA-backed Israel preemptively bomb next while everything in Western news seems to be about how Iran’s leader is “vulnerable” but with an “iron grip”[1] and how exactly will he be killed.
So I find it hard to take seriously a post that is all worried about Xi and China vs Taiwan while the USA are just some kind of abstract defender that just “maybe yes, maybe not” will join wars just because somehow it happens to have bases next door to China. And Russia. And Iran. Etc, etc.
The referring to CIA intelligence (just like with Iraq’s WMDs[2]) and seeing that the Plan A video starts with a nuclear strike from Russia (never USA, of course) doesn’t help.
I guess my question is: how much risk reduction would there be if USA stopped messing with the world?
The enemy is weak and strong at the same time—just like Umberto Eco warned about fascist movements. Who are the baddies again?
ADDED 2 days later: USA “spy chief” repeats there’s no evidence Iran is building nuclear weapons. Trump disavows her. 12 hours later, there’s news about USA bombing Iran. Why should I be worried about Xi again?
If the messing around pertains to Taiwan -- a naive implication of my model is if the USA had a 0% chance of intervening in Taiwan this would decrease the risk of catastrophe by around 1% (percentage point). This seems difficult to influence though.