Guys, I’m Ukrainian and I want to help my country’s defenses, got a network of people abroad that want to donate funds, but I don’t know where best to direct them to, which cause: military equipment / medicine / other. I’m reaching out to our local funds but they’re overloaded rn so might take a while to respond.
Does anyone have experience with the efficiency of donations in the times of war?
Can you point me to the right people / literature?
Thank you!
Unfortunately EAs rarely think about helping during war, because it’s difficult to find cost-effective interventions in a war zone (I think the best time to help was before the invasion started.) The Ukraine situation is especially sad to me, because European countries (or the US) did not offer to directly defend Ukraine before (or after) Putin made his veiled nuclear threat. But I encourage EAs to think about this today, offer ideas, and share relevant news stories and names of trustworthy blog posts and analysis (with summaries).
Related EA forum question (Update: also here; large donors see here)
Update: Bellingcat (on Twitter) analyzes footage in Ukraine (and elsewhere) to debunk, verify, and geolocate (donations accepted)
Tips for helping Ukraine from Ukraine Crisis Media Center.
Expect Russia to cut off internet access. Officials are asking for Starlink. (Update: first shipment of terminals delivered Feb. 28. Words of warning—even Musk says using Starlink is dangerous.)
Aide to Polish PM: “Everyone seeking help in Poland will be able to receive it.”
February 2022 Survey: “49% of all adult Ukrainians...say they will volunteer to fight or serve in Ukraine’s armed forces if a new Russian offensive happens. 10% are undecided, only 35% said they would not themselves volunteer”
Analysis from a military historian (who doesn’t believe the conflict was avoidable). Update: a month ago, Binkov’s Battlegrounds predicted what would happen if Russia invades fairly accurately so far, and it offers other informative military videos. And Scott Alexander points to Clay Graubard as the one who made the best prediction of invasion, while Clay and friends offer further depressing predictions along with a summary of Metaculus (etc.) predictions: Zelensky will be ousted/killed/captured, Putin probably won’t, (very roughly) 50,000 people will be killed, and Kyiv is
more likely than not to fall this monthlikely to fall within a few months.… I’m finding it informative to follow @WarSignals, superforecasters, and people they follow, on Twitter.Thread about how non-soldiers can help defend their city.
Organizations are manpower-limited so I’m not sure how useful it is to send money to the same orgs to which everyone else is sending money, considering that Ukraine needs help right now today. That said, the war could be very long and it’s worth considering how to provide long-term help. Here are some orgs found by quick Googling:
“Vostok SOS, based in Ukraine, partners with German-Swiss NGO Liberico to provide immediate evacuation support to Ukrainians attempting to flee their homes.”
“Save the Children: an international NGO delivering emergency aid to Ukrainian families”
“Phoenix Wings: a charitable foundation that supplies the Ukrainian army with medical treatment and defensive equipment such as vests and helmets”
“Kyiv Independent: a Ukraine-based, English-language independent news media outlet”
Norwegian Refugee Council plays some kind of role
Doctors Without Bordersoperates in Ukraine & Donbas(update)Razom is a Ukrainian-American human rights organization with its own list of recommendations, as well as accepting donations itself
I wonder about the issue of how cost-(in)effective current interventions really are—it’s true, that current interventions in the war zone can seem cost-ineffective in terms of immediate help to affected populations, however there is one larger game at play—Russian Federation’s (and Belarussian) aggression against Ukraine effectively demolished the current peacekeeping balance in Europe and across the world, and it seems that responding to worldwide defence challenges in case of Russian victory can be much more costly and time/attention consuming, than in case of Ukrainian victory, see a possible analysis here:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-02-18/what-if-russia-wins
Therefore, it seems to me (curious to hear your thoughts), that supporting Ukraine’s defence/humanitarian response, even if seems less cost effective at the face value than other possible EA actions, can actually save a lot of money/time/attention in the long-term perspective (not sure how to quantify how it exactly measures up to other existential risks etc., but my first reaction is that with new Cold War going on in case of Russian victory, responding globally to any other existential risks will be much more complex and difficult—however, how one’s indivitual contribution/donation plays into all of this is one tricky question).
Michael, I’m very much biased but that’s a brilliant point: aggression can’t be tolerated and normalised
I do worry about the Free World’s response not being strong enough, and I’ll be donating to some kind of Ukraine cause regardless of effectiveness. Still, I’m frustrated about not seeing an effective intervention. I’m in Canada btw, and the government is matching all donations to the Canadian Red Cross specifically, but the Red Cross has a “low impact” rating from Charity Intelligence. Hmm. Plus, Canada has generous tax deductions for donations to Canadian charities, so I’ll probably dump some money in the CRC even as I doubt its effectiveness.
I worry about follow-on effects. The more easily Putin succeeds in Ukraine, the more Xi Jinping might think he can succeed in Taiwan. The West may have enough resolve to sanction Russia, but sanctioning China would be much harder and many/most countries will be very tempted to defect. If Taiwan is invaded, the free world may weaken and the chance of World War 3 will increase. This historian analysis that I linked above encourages people to demand strong sanctions (I’m glad to see the SWIFT banhammer brought out btw):
Sanctions work much better when everyone acts in unity (though we can assume China will not participate). It concerns me the most that India abstained from supporting the UN resolution against Russian aggression, and has not announced sanctions, and isn’t acting even mildly bothered about the invasion AFAICT. But again, I’m not sure EAs have any leverage here beyond the standard “call your representative”.
(Best case scenario: sanctions and Ukrainian resistance are severe while Russian military morale is low; Putin reconsiders, and to save face moves all forces to Donbas, claiming that the invasion was a cover and that Donbas was the real target all along. An unlikely outcome, but if anyone can pull that off that pivot, Putin can.)
Here’s a recent announcement from MSF concerning their operations in Ukraine:
I interpret that as “we are no longer operating in Ukraine”, so modified my post.
thank you @dpiepgrass! the point about spreading out instead of focusing money on the same orgs makes a lot of sense, I’ve made my company do just that and I’m spreading out my money as well.
another thing I hope I can help my people with is spreading information and generating as much support from other countries as possible
Hi, Valmothy! I’m Nina, and last year I started an EA community in Kyiv. Have been organizing a lot of stuff and asking myself the same kind of questions for the last three days, let’s combine our efforts! You can find me on EAhub, there are links to different social media: https://eahub.org/profile/nina-antonyuk/.
Please write to me! Be safe!
Hi Nina, great to meet you, I’ll ping you shortly
Hey Valmothy. I don’t know the answer to your question but if you or your friends or family are in Ukraine and need help getting out feel free to signal me on +64212129849. I can put you in touch with some folks who might be able to help (info, support if you cross into Poland, $).
Really appreciate your support @cafelow! Gotta say I’m tearing up a lot these days.
My friends are mostly moving to Western Ukraine. Hope that’s safe enough. If I’ll learn of someone crossing the boarder, I’ll ask for assistance—thank you!
Great question! I am upvoting! Also just want to say that I am very sorry that Ukraine is left alone and as a Polish citizen (now living in London) I will try to help in whatever capacity I can. My friends are already helping in Poland with transport and housing for refugees. We stand with Ukraine! We are very sorry that the World is just standing and watching this, we hope there will be more sanctions and weapons delivered soon.
And yeah I join your problem—also not sure what are the best opportunities to donate to. So far I supported Polish Humanitarian Action, because they already were helping in Ukraine, so they know organizations on the ground, and they are respected and trustworthy (they helped in many war zones since 1992, including Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan or Chechnya). However, I would like to donate to a Ukrainian organization but it’s hard for me to understand where is the best place to donate.
I will however support Ukrainian refugees directly. Either with money, transport, or housing in London if needed.
All the best to you! I hope your friends and family are safe!
Thank you Ula. Polish people are helping us so much, an incredibly inspiring example of human connection.
Appreciate your desire to help! As for the trustworthy Ukrainian charities, here are a few any Ukrainian can vouch for: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6902645848933810176/
(hope it’s okay I post a link?)
Do you know if there are any orgs in the UK housing Ukrainian refugees?
there’s a crowdsourced guide on this but it doesn’t mention housing aid in the UK: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ebXPKnF_krrfkpjF4dHKhJ3YYzYVpg8w-JAG91yLxdc/edit#
I don’t know much but I found this discussion a good starting point: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qkhoBJRNQT4EFWos7/are-there-effective-ways-to-help-ukrainians-right-now
Thank you!
I’ve submitted a very rough draft of how we could profile charities (and perhaps other organizations) to get a feel how they contribute:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gacpE79RKke2foG9K/rough-attempt-to-profile-charities-which-support-ukrainian
I appreciate your feedback, I’d be happy to get this ball rolling.
I registered on this site to search for like-minded and not indifferent people. Unfortunately, my lifestyle does not allow me to use this network for its intended purpose at the moment, but I chose this path myself. My son and I provide assistance every day to residents of Ukraine who do not have the opportunity to purchase provisions, we provide only those who cannot provide themselves with food, mostly small settlements in the vicinity of the line of contact of the armed forces . Funds created by many kind people and the state provide tremendous support , but unfortunately the time that bureaucratic regulatory tools take is long , and people need help every day . My son suggested contacting the not indifferent residents of developed democratic countries through social networks and forums with a request for donations in bitcoin, arguing that this is currently the fastest way to transfer money in the world. I don’t fully understand what it is, but I found confirmation on the Internet that after receiving funds in 20 minutes we have the opportunity to purchase what many residents need right now. Basically, these are old people who have nothing left but to wait humbly and eat what they will be brought. Fortunately, we have people who provide daily assistance in the field in which there is an opportunity. They don’t charge us for repairing our small truck , they help us buy fuel . In some places, they give us food for free , but unfortunately, all these kind people have fewer opportunities to help than those who need help every day. We do not condemn people who refuse to help, because we are all in a very difficult situation , we do not evaluate someone’s contribution to a greater or lesser extent , any contribution is something that can give someone the opportunity not to go hungry today. We have no right to force anyone .
If you have the opportunity and desire to do a good deed, we will be glad to receive any donations. Our wallet bc1qrgzcm6exx0vchyj089jzspa6vyjcs65zzxskd0xe04qa8h83lxks7ldh38