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Armed conflict

TagLast edit: Apr 29, 2022, 5:53 PM by Pablo

The armed conflict tag is for posts about interstate or intrastate violence between armed groups, the drivers of such conflicts, and interventions to reduce the frequency or severity of such conflicts.

Further reading

Garfinkel, Ben & Allan Dafoe (2019) How does the offense-defense balance scale?, Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 42, pp. 736–763.

Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2022) Chris Blattman on the five reasons wars happen, 80,000 Hours, April 28.

Related entries

autonomous weapon | existential risk factor | global governance | great power conflict | international relations | nuclear warfare | peace and conflict studies | polarity | Russell–Einstein Manifesto | weapons of mass destruction

EA thoughts from Is­rael-Ha­mas war

ezrahDec 6, 2023, 8:53 AM
271 points
64 comments9 min readEA link

Brian Tse: Risks from Great Power Conflicts

EA GlobalMar 11, 2019, 3:02 PM
23 points
2 comments13 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ments that could in­crease risks from nu­clear weapons: A shal­low review

MichaelA🔸Feb 9, 2023, 3:41 PM
79 points
3 comments5 min readEA link
(bit.ly)

Can a war cause hu­man ex­tinc­tion? Once again, not on priors

Vasco Grilo🔸Jan 25, 2024, 7:56 AM
67 points
29 comments18 min readEA link

How bad would nu­clear win­ter caused by a US-Rus­sia nu­clear ex­change be?

Luisa_RodriguezJun 20, 2019, 1:48 AM
145 points
18 comments43 min readEA link

In­ter­me­di­ate goals for re­duc­ing risks from nu­clear weapons: A shal­low re­view (part 1/​4)

MichaelA🔸May 1, 2023, 3:04 PM
35 points
0 comments11 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

900+ Fore­cast­ers on Whether Rus­sia Will In­vade Ukraine

MetaculusFeb 19, 2022, 1:29 PM
51 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

In­tro to the book: An­i­mal Weapons by Dou­glas Em­len.

Maynk02Oct 11, 2023, 9:26 PM
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What are effec­tive ways to help Ukraini­ans right now?

Manuel AllgaierFeb 24, 2022, 10:20 PM
130 points
85 comments1 min readEA link

Which nu­clear wars should worry us most?

Luisa_RodriguezJun 16, 2019, 11:31 PM
103 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Would US and Rus­sian nu­clear forces sur­vive a first strike?

Luisa_RodriguezJun 18, 2019, 12:28 AM
85 points
4 comments24 min readEA link

Have we un­der­es­ti­mated the risk of a NATO-Rus­sia nu­clear war? Can we do any­thing about it?

TopherHallquistJul 9, 2015, 4:09 PM
8 points
20 comments1 min readEA link

Notes on “The Myth of the Nu­clear Revolu­tion” (Lie­ber & Press, 2020)

imp4rtial 🔸May 24, 2022, 3:02 PM
42 points
2 comments20 min readEA link

How likely is a nu­clear ex­change be­tween the US and Rus­sia?

Luisa_RodriguezJun 20, 2019, 1:49 AM
80 points
13 comments14 min readEA link

Will the Treaty on the Pro­hi­bi­tion of Nu­clear Weapons af­fect nu­clear de­pro­lifer­a­tion through le­gal chan­nels?

Luisa_RodriguezDec 6, 2019, 10:38 AM
100 points
5 comments32 min readEA link

Nu­clear risk, its po­ten­tial long-term im­pacts, & do­ing re­search on that: An in­tro­duc­tory talk

MichaelA🔸Apr 10, 2023, 3:26 PM
50 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

Sur­vey on AI ex­is­ten­tial risk scenarios

Sam ClarkeJun 8, 2021, 5:12 PM
154 points
11 comments6 min readEA link

Pos­si­ble way of re­duc­ing great power war prob­a­bil­ity?

Denkenberger🔸Nov 28, 2019, 4:27 AM
33 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Notes on “Bioter­ror and Biowar­fare” (2006)

MichaelA🔸Mar 1, 2021, 9:42 AM
29 points
6 comments4 min readEA link

Open Philan­thropy Shal­low In­ves­ti­ga­tion: Civil Con­flict Reduction

Lauren GilbertApr 12, 2022, 6:18 PM
122 points
12 comments24 min readEA link

How likely is World War III?

Stephen ClareFeb 15, 2022, 3:09 PM
122 points
21 comments22 min readEA link

AI Gover­nance: Op­por­tu­nity and The­ory of Impact

Allan DafoeSep 17, 2020, 6:30 AM
262 points
19 comments12 min readEA link

[Question] Books /​ book re­views on nu­clear risk, WMDs, great power war?

MichaelA🔸Dec 15, 2020, 1:40 AM
16 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Does the US nu­clear policy still tar­get cities?

Jeffrey LadishOct 2, 2019, 5:46 PM
32 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Some thoughts on risks from nar­row, non-agen­tic AI

richard_ngoJan 19, 2021, 12:07 AM
36 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

The case for not in­vad­ing Crimea

kbogJan 19, 2023, 6:37 AM
12 points
16 comments19 min readEA link

A Sur­vey of the Po­ten­tial Long-term Im­pacts of AI

Sam ClarkeJul 18, 2022, 9:48 AM
63 points
2 comments27 min readEA link

Clas­sify­ing sources of AI x-risk

Sam ClarkeAug 8, 2022, 6:18 PM
41 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] Is any­one look­ing into geno­cide in Su­dan?

DPiepgrassSep 24, 2023, 6:06 PM
20 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Taiwan’s mil­i­tary com­pla­cency.

JKitsonDec 4, 2023, 9:28 AM
32 points
4 comments11 min readEA link

[Question] Which aid char­ity should I give to for peo­ple in Gaza?

tamgentNov 4, 2023, 10:56 AM
8 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

I’m a Former Is­raeli Officer. AMA

Yovel RomOct 10, 2023, 10:35 AM
65 points
33 comments1 min readEA link

Re­think­ing longter­mism and global development

Eevee🔹Sep 2, 2022, 5:28 AM
10 points
2 comments8 min readEA link
(sunyshore.substack.com)

Re­search pro­ject idea: Cli­mate, agri­cul­tural, and famine effects of nu­clear conflict

MichaelA🔸Apr 15, 2023, 2:35 PM
17 points
2 comments4 min readEA link

Re­search pro­ject idea: Tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ments that could in­crease risks from nu­clear weapons

MichaelA🔸Apr 15, 2023, 2:28 PM
17 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Re­search pro­ject idea: In­ter­me­di­ate goals for nu­clear risk reduction

MichaelA🔸Apr 15, 2023, 2:25 PM
24 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Bear Brau­moel­ler has passed away

Stephen ClareMay 5, 2023, 2:06 PM
153 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Naive ap­pli­ca­tion of the ITN frame­work on a situ­a­tion like the one in Gaza might lead us wrong

C TilliNov 13, 2023, 8:00 PM
23 points
11 comments4 min readEA link

Ques­tions for Reflec­tion on Gaza

gbNov 20, 2023, 6:01 AM
15 points
18 comments2 min readEA link

Your Chance to Save Lives. To­day.

LiaHOct 13, 2023, 11:48 PM
−6 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

Bryan Ca­plan on pacifism

Vasco Grilo🔸Dec 9, 2023, 8:58 AM
10 points
4 comments7 min readEA link
(www.econlib.org)

[Question] High im­pact char­i­ties in Gaza or Is­rael?

JoelMcGuireOct 17, 2023, 12:37 AM
65 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

How to effec­tively help peo­ple in Pales­tine and Is­rael dur­ing the war

bluebird27Dec 18, 2023, 10:51 AM
9 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

Can a con­flict cause hu­man ex­tinc­tion? Yet again, not on priors

Vasco Grilo🔸Jun 19, 2024, 4:59 PM
19 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

Ex­plor­ing the con­se­quences of Rus­sia’s ab­sence from the START III treaty for strate­gic arms re­duc­tion.

Ashley Valentina MarteAug 12, 2024, 4:17 PM
13 points
1 comment9 min readEA link

Var­i­ance of the an­nual con­flict and epi­demic/​pan­demic deaths as a frac­tion of the global population

Vasco Grilo🔸Sep 10, 2024, 5:02 PM
16 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

What “Sav­ing Pri­vate Ryan” can teach us about EA

Moritz Stumpe 🔸Jan 12, 2024, 3:18 PM
18 points
6 comments5 min readEA link

Overview of Re­think Pri­ori­ties’ work on risks from nu­clear weapons

MichaelA🔸Jun 10, 2021, 6:48 PM
43 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

Dani Nedal: Risks from great-power competition

EA GlobalFeb 13, 2020, 10:10 PM
20 points
0 comments16 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

How many peo­ple would be kil­led as a di­rect re­sult of a US-Rus­sia nu­clear ex­change?

Luisa_RodriguezJun 30, 2019, 3:00 AM
97 points
17 comments52 min readEA link

EA and the Pos­si­ble De­cline of the US: Very Rough Thoughts

Cullen 🔸Jan 8, 2021, 7:30 AM
56 points
19 comments4 min readEA link

What’s the big deal about hy­per­sonic mis­siles?

jiaMay 18, 2020, 7:17 AM
40 points
9 comments5 min readEA link

[Question] Ukraine: How a reg­u­lar per­son can effec­tively help their coun­try dur­ing war?

ValmothyFeb 26, 2022, 10:58 AM
49 points
19 comments1 min readEA link

Prob­lem ar­eas be­yond 80,000 Hours’ cur­rent pri­ori­ties

Arden KoehlerJun 22, 2020, 12:49 PM
281 points
62 comments15 min readEA link

Why Don’t We Use Chem­i­cal Weapons Any­more?

DaleApr 23, 2020, 1:25 AM
28 points
4 comments3 min readEA link
(acoup.blog)

Cru­cial ques­tions for longtermists

MichaelA🔸Jul 29, 2020, 9:39 AM
104 points
17 comments19 min readEA link

Why those who care about catas­trophic and ex­is­ten­tial risk should care about au­tonomous weapons

aaguirreNov 11, 2020, 5:27 PM
103 points
31 comments15 min readEA link

[Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prizes] Pocket Parks

Open PhilanthropyAug 29, 2022, 11:01 AM
7 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Nu­clear Risk Fore­cast­ing Tournament

MichaelA🔸Jun 16, 2021, 4:12 PM
38 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Early Reflec­tions and Re­sources on the Rus­sian In­va­sion of Ukraine

SethBaumMar 18, 2022, 2:54 PM
57 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

Com­pe­ti­tion for “For­tified Es­says” on nu­clear risk

MichaelA🔸Nov 17, 2021, 8:55 PM
35 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Up­dated es­ti­mates of the sever­ity of a nu­clear war

Luisa_RodriguezDec 19, 2019, 3:11 PM
76 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

Notes on Schel­ling’s “Strat­egy of Con­flict” (1960)

MichaelA🔸Jan 29, 2021, 8:56 AM
20 points
4 comments8 min readEA link

[Question] How many times would nu­clear weapons have been used if ev­ery state had them since 1950?

ecaMay 4, 2021, 3:34 PM
16 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Fi­nal Re­port of the Na­tional Se­cu­rity Com­mis­sion on Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence (NSCAI, 2021)

MichaelA🔸Jun 1, 2021, 8:19 AM
51 points
3 comments4 min readEA link
(www.nscai.gov)

Notes on “The Bomb: Pres­i­dents, Gen­er­als, and the Se­cret His­tory of Nu­clear War” (2020)

MichaelA🔸Feb 6, 2021, 11:10 AM
18 points
5 comments8 min readEA link

Should Effec­tive Altru­ism be at war with North Korea?

BenHoffmanMay 5, 2019, 1:44 AM
−14 points
8 comments5 min readEA link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Rough at­tempt to pro­file char­i­ties which sup­port Ukrainian war re­lief in terms of their cost-effec­tive­ness.

MichaelFeb 27, 2022, 12:51 AM
29 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Overview of Trans­for­ma­tive AI Mi­suse Risks

SammyDMartinDec 11, 2024, 11:04 AM
12 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(longtermrisk.org)

III. Run­ning its course

Maynk02Nov 4, 2023, 7:31 PM
6 points
1 comment5 min readEA link

EA on nu­clear war and expertise

beanAug 28, 2022, 4:59 AM
153 points
17 comments4 min readEA link

Eval­u­at­ing Com­mu­nal Violence from an Effec­tive Altru­ist Perspective

Frank FredericksAug 13, 2019, 7:38 PM
16 points
4 comments8 min readEA link

A Third World War?: Let’s help those who are hold­ing it back (Tim Sny­der)

Aaron GoldzimerNov 26, 2024, 3:07 AM
1 point
1 comment1 min readEA link
(snyder.substack.com)

Con­flict and poverty (or should we tackle poverty in nu­clear con­texts more?)

SanjayMar 6, 2020, 9:59 PM
13 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Should some­one start a grass­roots cam­paign for USA to recog­nise the State of Pales­tine?

freedomandutilityMay 11, 2021, 3:29 PM
−2 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Ukraine War sup­port and tar­geted sanctions

Arturo MaciasDec 11, 2023, 4:11 PM
−7 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

The Germy Para­dox: An Introduction

eukaryoteSep 24, 2019, 5:18 AM
48 points
4 comments3 min readEA link
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

The Struc­tural Trans­for­ma­tion Case For Peacekeeping

Lauren GilbertNov 12, 2024, 8:30 PM
32 points
9 comments1 min readEA link
(laurenpolicy.substack.com)

IV. Par­allels and Review

Maynk02Feb 27, 2024, 11:10 PM
7 points
1 comment8 min readEA link
(open.substack.com)

[Question] What are the best ways to en­courage de-es­ca­la­tion in re­gards to Ukraine?

oh54321Oct 9, 2022, 11:15 AM
13 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

A coun­ter­fac­tual QALY for USD 2.60–28.94?

brb243Sep 6, 2020, 9:45 PM
37 points
6 comments5 min readEA link

Ground­wa­ter crisis: a threat of civ­i­liza­tion collapse

RickJSDec 24, 2022, 9:21 PM
0 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(drive.google.com)

I. Start­ing Small

Maynk02Oct 11, 2023, 9:44 PM
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

US House Vote on Sup­port for Ye­men War

Radical Empath IsmamDec 12, 2022, 2:13 AM
−4 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(theintercept.com)

Nu­clear Risk and Philan­thropic Strat­egy [Founders Pledge]

christian.rJul 25, 2023, 8:22 PM
83 points
15 comments76 min readEA link
(www.founderspledge.com)

The Germy Para­dox – Filters: A taboo

eukaryoteOct 19, 2019, 12:14 AM
17 points
2 comments9 min readEA link
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

[Question] I’m in­ter­view­ing Bear Brau­moel­ler about ‘Only The Dead: The Per­sis­tence of War in the Modern Age’. What should I ask?

Robert_WiblinAug 19, 2022, 3:18 PM
12 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Noah Tay­lor: Devel­op­ing a re­search agenda for bridg­ing ex­is­ten­tial risk and peace and con­flict studies

EA GlobalJan 21, 2021, 4:19 PM
21 points
0 comments20 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

II. Trig­ger­ing The Race

Maynk02Oct 24, 2023, 6:45 PM
6 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

The Germy Para­dox – The empty sky: A his­tory of state biolog­i­cal weapons programs

eukaryoteSep 24, 2019, 5:26 AM
24 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)
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