Fundamentally, the issue of adherence not to international law in general, but the norm of not allowing territorial conquest by war, seems critical. Regardless of Ukrainian claims, if Russia is allowed to keep territory it gained militarily, it weakens the single most important reason for states not to engage in military conflict, returning to the pre-WWII status quo. The indirect implications for China and Taiwan, and for leaders around the world in the coming decades, contribute to—or detract from—international stability in ways that are far more important than the direct implications.
That said, I think that considering a binary question is mistaken, and in fact the international economic and other pressure against Russia, is enough to reinforce the norm, while hopefully allowing a stalemate or indefinite ceasefire in the region, addressing the other concerns.
Fundamentally, the issue of adherence not to international law in general, but the norm of not allowing territorial conquest by war, seems critical. Regardless of Ukrainian claims, if Russia is allowed to keep territory it gained militarily, it weakens the single most important reason for states not to engage in military conflict, returning to the pre-WWII status quo. The indirect implications for China and Taiwan, and for leaders around the world in the coming decades, contribute to—or detract from—international stability in ways that are far more important than the direct implications.
The norm of not allowing territorial conquest by war does not really exist as stated. The norm is to not allow conquest into the recognized borders of other sovereign states. Conquering unrecognized states and breakaway regions is fully normalized, as shown for instance by the nonexistent international reactions to recent wars in Tigray and Karabakh.
China invading Taiwan would not be classical territorial conquest by war because Taiwan is not recognized as a sovereign state. According to international law, China already has the legal right to invade Taiwan. If anything, Ukraine invading Crimea, not Russia invading Crimea, is analogous to China invading Taiwan.
Are there other cases where something similar to the 2014 invasion of Crimea might happen—sure. But the idea that invading Crimea now will help make leaders decide against such stunts is speculative and unsubstantiated. Different parts of the world, different scenarios with different stakes. And in cases like Crimea, where the domestic majority welcomes it and there is little to no bloodshed, it’s hardly something to be upset about.
It is a highly dubious view of norms: that they are so powerful that they govern state behavior, but so fragile that when one country violates them many others will as well.
That said, I think that considering a binary question is mistaken, and in fact the international economic and other pressure against Russia, is enough to reinforce the norm,
Yes, well, I would think that annihilating their military and sweeping them out of mainland Ukraine would be enough to reinforce the norm.
The norm of not allowing territorial conquest by war does not really exist as stated. The norm is to not allow conquest into the recognized borders of other sovereign states. Conquering unrecognized states and breakaway regions is fully normalized, as shown for instance by the nonexistent international reactions to recent wars in Tigray and Karabakh.
Crimea was a part of Ukraine when it was conquered by Russian troops. Unambiguously. The claims by Russia that it really would have wanted to break away may even be correct—but they don’t get to invade first, then run an election to say they declared independence. It certainly needs to be the other way around for it to be at all similar to those other cases.
Yes, well, I would think that annihilating their military and sweeping them out of mainland Ukraine would be enough to reinforce the norm.
If you only enforce the rules when there is already a military conclusion, you’re not enforcing international law, you’re saying that might makes right. There needs to be continued pressure on Russia about the fact that they are in continuous violation of international law. And at this point, if they want Crimea legally, they would need hand it back to Ukraine and let them vote on succession. (Or they need Ukraine to recognize their claims.)
It is a highly dubious view of norms: that they are so powerful that they govern state behavior, but so fragile that when one country violates them many others will as well.
That’s assuming norms are binary, is reductive, and makes no sense as a response. Yes, norms are degraded by violations, and yes, they are important guides to state behavior in a wide variety of cases. If you don’t think either one of those claims is true, I’d be happy to defend it.
Crimea was a part of Ukraine when it was conquered by Russian troops. Unambiguously.
That’s beside the point, I wasn’t claiming otherwise. The point is that Taiwan is more like those other cases.
If you only enforce the rules when there is already a military conclusion, you’re not enforcing international law, you’re saying that might makes right.
I wasn’t arguing against the use of sanctions to punish countries for violating international law (or some laws, at least).
And enforcing law requires might, and sanctions are might of a different form, so this doesn’t make sense anyway.
That’s assuming norms are binary, is reductive, and makes no sense as a response. Yes, norms are degraded by violations, and yes, they are important guides to state behavior in a wide variety of cases. If you don’t think either one of those claims is true, I’d be happy to defend it.
I don’t think we fundamentally disagree there but I’m saying this stuff is very tenuous as a rationale for foreign policy—one norm violation doesn’t make a great deal of difference.
Fundamentally, the issue of adherence not to international law in general, but the norm of not allowing territorial conquest by war, seems critical. Regardless of Ukrainian claims, if Russia is allowed to keep territory it gained militarily, it weakens the single most important reason for states not to engage in military conflict, returning to the pre-WWII status quo. The indirect implications for China and Taiwan, and for leaders around the world in the coming decades, contribute to—or detract from—international stability in ways that are far more important than the direct implications.
That said, I think that considering a binary question is mistaken, and in fact the international economic and other pressure against Russia, is enough to reinforce the norm, while hopefully allowing a stalemate or indefinite ceasefire in the region, addressing the other concerns.
The norm of not allowing territorial conquest by war does not really exist as stated. The norm is to not allow conquest into the recognized borders of other sovereign states. Conquering unrecognized states and breakaway regions is fully normalized, as shown for instance by the nonexistent international reactions to recent wars in Tigray and Karabakh.
China invading Taiwan would not be classical territorial conquest by war because Taiwan is not recognized as a sovereign state. According to international law, China already has the legal right to invade Taiwan. If anything, Ukraine invading Crimea, not Russia invading Crimea, is analogous to China invading Taiwan.
Are there other cases where something similar to the 2014 invasion of Crimea might happen—sure. But the idea that invading Crimea now will help make leaders decide against such stunts is speculative and unsubstantiated. Different parts of the world, different scenarios with different stakes. And in cases like Crimea, where the domestic majority welcomes it and there is little to no bloodshed, it’s hardly something to be upset about.
It is a highly dubious view of norms: that they are so powerful that they govern state behavior, but so fragile that when one country violates them many others will as well.
Yes, well, I would think that annihilating their military and sweeping them out of mainland Ukraine would be enough to reinforce the norm.
Crimea was a part of Ukraine when it was conquered by Russian troops. Unambiguously. The claims by Russia that it really would have wanted to break away may even be correct—but they don’t get to invade first, then run an election to say they declared independence. It certainly needs to be the other way around for it to be at all similar to those other cases.
If you only enforce the rules when there is already a military conclusion, you’re not enforcing international law, you’re saying that might makes right. There needs to be continued pressure on Russia about the fact that they are in continuous violation of international law. And at this point, if they want Crimea legally, they would need hand it back to Ukraine and let them vote on succession. (Or they need Ukraine to recognize their claims.)
That’s assuming norms are binary, is reductive, and makes no sense as a response. Yes, norms are degraded by violations, and yes, they are important guides to state behavior in a wide variety of cases. If you don’t think either one of those claims is true, I’d be happy to defend it.
That’s beside the point, I wasn’t claiming otherwise. The point is that Taiwan is more like those other cases.
I wasn’t arguing against the use of sanctions to punish countries for violating international law (or some laws, at least).
And enforcing law requires might, and sanctions are might of a different form, so this doesn’t make sense anyway.
I don’t think we fundamentally disagree there but I’m saying this stuff is very tenuous as a rationale for foreign policy—one norm violation doesn’t make a great deal of difference.