What COVID-19 questions should Open Philanthropy pay Good Judgment to work on?

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Summary

Open Philan­thropy is work­ing with Philip Tet­lock’s pre­dic­tion ser­vice on fore­cast­ing around the COVID-19 pan­demic. They are so­lic­it­ing ques­tions for fore­cast­ers to use in this form.

Full text

As part of our work on biose­cu­rity and pan­demic pre­pared­ness, we have con­tracted Good Judg­ment Inc. to ex­pand its efforts to ag­gre­gate, pub­lish, and track fore­casts about the COVID-19 pan­demic, with the hope that these fore­casts can help im­prove plan­ning by health se­cu­rity pro­fes­sion­als and the broader pub­lic, limit the spread of the virus, and save lives.

The ini­tial set of pre­dic­tions, available here, are ag­gre­gated from fore­casts by pro­fes­sional “Su­perfore­cast­ers,” who qual­ified by be­ing in the most ac­cu­rate 1-2% of fore­cast­ers from a large-scale, gov­ern­ment-funded se­ries of fore­cast­ing tour­na­ments that ran from 2011-2015 (see Su­perfore­cast­ing) and, since then, by be­ing in the top hand­ful of fore­cast­ers from Good Judg­ment’s pub­lic fore­cast­ing plat­form, Good Judg­ment Open.

We may com­mis­sion ad­di­tional fore­casts re­lated to COVID-19 in the com­ing months, and we wel­come sug­ges­tions of well-formed ques­tions for which reg­u­larly up­dated fore­casts would be es­pe­cially helpful to pub­lic health pro­fes­sion­als and the broader pub­lic. If you would like to sug­gest one or more ques­tions for po­ten­tial fore­cast­ing, please fill out this short form, es­pe­cially if you are a med­i­cal or pub­lic health pro­fes­sional, and es­pe­cially if you know how to state the fore­cast­ing ques­tion(s) pre­cisely enough that it’s clear how to de­cide later how the ques­tion(s) re­solved.

We’ve been fund­ing sci­en­tific re­search and policy anal­y­sis on biose­cu­rity and pan­demic pre­pared­ness for sev­eral years and are glad to sup­port the work many of our grantees are already do­ing to re­spond to this crisis. We’re con­tin­u­ing to sup­port them and are pur­su­ing other op­por­tu­ni­ties to help miti­gate the effects of this pan­demic, which we ex­pect to share more about in the fu­ture.